BTC/USDT 15-Minute Spot Chart Analysis
Exchange: Binance | Timeframe: 15m
Decision: 🔴 SHORT (High-Probability Mean Reversion)
Indicators:
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence spotted (Price higher highs vs. RSI lower highs).
MACD Crossover: Bullish histogram fading, potential bearish crossover imminent.
ATR (220.23): High volatility suggests aggressive stop placement.
Value Investing (Fundamental Anchor):
Overbought zone ($105K resistance) aligns with historical rejection levels.
Weak volume surge on upticks vs. strong sell-volume clusters.
Macro/Momentum:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" post-UK regulatory FUD and Texas Bitcoin Bill hype.
Altcoin rally (ETH/XRP outperforming BTC) signals capital rotation away from BTC.
Risk Management:
Tight stop-loss to avoid whipsaw in high-volatility regime.
🎯 Trade Parameters
Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit-1 Take-Profit-2
104,000 104,500 103,200 102,640
Risk-Reward: 1:3.5 (Stop: 0.48% | TP1: 1.7% | TP2: 3.1%)
📉 Technical Setup
Indicators:
RSI (14): 44.8 (Neutral but fading from overbought).
MACD: Histogram uptrend weakening (-155.21 vs. -215.84 signal).
Volume Profile: Low volume on latest candle vs. earlier sell-volume spikes.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $105,510 (Today’s high)
Support: $102,640 (24h low) → Primary TP target.
⚡ Execution Notes
Trigger: Enter on break below $104,000 with a limit order.
Stop: Tight due to high ATR—adjust if volatility expands.
TP1: Partial close at $103,200 (liquidity pool).
TP2: Full exit at $102,640 (swing low).
Contingency:
If BTC reclaims $104,500 (stop-hit), wait for confirmation of bullish reversal (e.g., MACD flip) before reconsidering.
This is a classic exhaustion play after a liquidity grab above $105K. The lack of follow-through volume and RSI divergence screams mean reversion. Short with conviction but respect the stop—macro news can spike volatility.
Exchange: Binance | Timeframe: 15m
Decision: 🔴 SHORT (High-Probability Mean Reversion)
Indicators:
RSI Divergence: Bearish divergence spotted (Price higher highs vs. RSI lower highs).
MACD Crossover: Bullish histogram fading, potential bearish crossover imminent.
ATR (220.23): High volatility suggests aggressive stop placement.
Value Investing (Fundamental Anchor):
Overbought zone ($105K resistance) aligns with historical rejection levels.
Weak volume surge on upticks vs. strong sell-volume clusters.
Macro/Momentum:
"Buy the rumor, sell the news" post-UK regulatory FUD and Texas Bitcoin Bill hype.
Altcoin rally (ETH/XRP outperforming BTC) signals capital rotation away from BTC.
Risk Management:
Tight stop-loss to avoid whipsaw in high-volatility regime.
🎯 Trade Parameters
Entry Stop-Loss Take-Profit-1 Take-Profit-2
104,000 104,500 103,200 102,640
Risk-Reward: 1:3.5 (Stop: 0.48% | TP1: 1.7% | TP2: 3.1%)
📉 Technical Setup
Indicators:
RSI (14): 44.8 (Neutral but fading from overbought).
MACD: Histogram uptrend weakening (-155.21 vs. -215.84 signal).
Volume Profile: Low volume on latest candle vs. earlier sell-volume spikes.
Key Levels:
Resistance: $105,510 (Today’s high)
Support: $102,640 (24h low) → Primary TP target.
⚡ Execution Notes
Trigger: Enter on break below $104,000 with a limit order.
Stop: Tight due to high ATR—adjust if volatility expands.
TP1: Partial close at $103,200 (liquidity pool).
TP2: Full exit at $102,640 (swing low).
Contingency:
If BTC reclaims $104,500 (stop-hit), wait for confirmation of bullish reversal (e.g., MACD flip) before reconsidering.
This is a classic exhaustion play after a liquidity grab above $105K. The lack of follow-through volume and RSI divergence screams mean reversion. Short with conviction but respect the stop—macro news can spike volatility.
Order cancelled
Entry Condition: Break below $104,000Reality: Price reversed before entry and pushed up to $104,800
Conclusion: Trade idea is canceled, not stopped out — because never in the position
Note
📉 Post-Trade Update SummaryBTC/USDT 15-Minute Spot Chart Review
Original Plan: Short on break below $104,000
Price reversed before triggering the short entry
Rallied aggressively to $106,800 (liquidity sweep & stop-hunt)
Then dumped sharply — hitting the original take-profit targets ($103,200 ➝ $102,640 ➝ even lower to $102,200)
🎯 Key Insight:
✅ Setup was valid — RSI divergence, weakening MACD, and altcoin strength correctly signaled a top formation.
❌ Entry not triggered — discipline kept risk controlled as price never broke $104K.
📌 After stop-hunting upside extension to $106.8K, the dump validated the short thesis — targets hit after a fakeout pump.
📌 Lesson:
Patience and precision matter. This was a case of "early signal, late confirmation." The idea was right — the timing just didn’t align with the entry condition.
Entry rule avoided getting trapped in a false breakdown. Re-entry after confirmation would’ve captured the move.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.