Invalidation of bear scenarios for BITCOIN!
Hi all,
Bitcoin has been moving up very nicely since the beginning of 2023 and it's going pretty well. The only concern I have is that price movement is not supported well with the volume. We have a decreasing volume lately and I hope we can see even higher price movements supported with added volume.
Let's analyze if we are done with bear scenarios or not! Even the price is holding very nicely above the support areas this year, it's still possible to see downwards price actions and we must be careful with such movements. I point out 2 invalidation points that I would be much more bullish if we touch these points.
First one is representing the Wave 1 of the downward wave (69K to sub 15K). It's still possible that we are in the flat correction since 17K. It's first reacted till 25K (A), then we saw downwards action with the collapse of FTX till 15K (B) and since then we are in the C wave with 5 sub waves and we are about to be done. If we do not cross Wave1 which s around 32.5-33K, then we may go down till 12K. If we cross wave 1, then this scenario is invalid. If we see an invalidation, it's great because it's super difficult to identify if the current wave is a flat correction or the first impulsive sub wave of the big rising wave. Because both waves consist of 5 sub waves and it's almost impossible to identify. This is why invalidation point is crucial.
Second one is representing the first lower high of the downward price action and if we cross the 48-49K area, it's very probable that further downward scenarios are cancelled. I'm talking about 2-3 years of bear scenario starting from 69K with A-B-C type of correction. It's still possible that we have actually completed wave A at 15.5K and now we are in the middle of wave B which would end typically at fib level of 0.5-0.618. If we go back down from these fib levels, it's still high chance to see sub 15K values and we'll lose 1 more year at least. If we see a candle closed above 48-49K, I'll be 90% confident that we are proceeding with a bull scenario and no need to have concerns about bear scenarios.
We are in the pivot at the moment. DXY is also in the very crucial zone around 101. We may see huge movements either up or down next week or the following week.
I'm more optimistic these days but we still must be careful and should consider bear scenarios until they are invalidated!
Remember that I'm a crypto investor and buying spot only. As the price goes down, I buy coins with dollar cost averaging and try to sell partly as the price goes up to the significant resistances.
These are my own ideas and please do your own research!
Cheers!
Bitcoin has been moving up very nicely since the beginning of 2023 and it's going pretty well. The only concern I have is that price movement is not supported well with the volume. We have a decreasing volume lately and I hope we can see even higher price movements supported with added volume.
Let's analyze if we are done with bear scenarios or not! Even the price is holding very nicely above the support areas this year, it's still possible to see downwards price actions and we must be careful with such movements. I point out 2 invalidation points that I would be much more bullish if we touch these points.
First one is representing the Wave 1 of the downward wave (69K to sub 15K). It's still possible that we are in the flat correction since 17K. It's first reacted till 25K (A), then we saw downwards action with the collapse of FTX till 15K (B) and since then we are in the C wave with 5 sub waves and we are about to be done. If we do not cross Wave1 which s around 32.5-33K, then we may go down till 12K. If we cross wave 1, then this scenario is invalid. If we see an invalidation, it's great because it's super difficult to identify if the current wave is a flat correction or the first impulsive sub wave of the big rising wave. Because both waves consist of 5 sub waves and it's almost impossible to identify. This is why invalidation point is crucial.
Second one is representing the first lower high of the downward price action and if we cross the 48-49K area, it's very probable that further downward scenarios are cancelled. I'm talking about 2-3 years of bear scenario starting from 69K with A-B-C type of correction. It's still possible that we have actually completed wave A at 15.5K and now we are in the middle of wave B which would end typically at fib level of 0.5-0.618. If we go back down from these fib levels, it's still high chance to see sub 15K values and we'll lose 1 more year at least. If we see a candle closed above 48-49K, I'll be 90% confident that we are proceeding with a bull scenario and no need to have concerns about bear scenarios.
We are in the pivot at the moment. DXY is also in the very crucial zone around 101. We may see huge movements either up or down next week or the following week.
I'm more optimistic these days but we still must be careful and should consider bear scenarios until they are invalidated!
Remember that I'm a crypto investor and buying spot only. As the price goes down, I buy coins with dollar cost averaging and try to sell partly as the price goes up to the significant resistances.
These are my own ideas and please do your own research!
Cheers!
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