Bitcoin 4hr analysis 11/20/2020
Good morning again ladies and gentlemen and welcome back to 18k. We retook 18k overnight and now we sit just above 18270. Nice work bulls. But if we want to crush that ATH this year we still have a lot of work to do... That is for sure. As a trader I want to identify trends and patterns as we climb the chart. This helps me bring some method to the madness so to speak. I see a few things I wanted to share with you all this morning. So buckle up... and get ready for the most exhilarating analysis you will ever read ;)
I was pleasantly surprised when I awoke to 18K+ BTC. We still have not created that higher high we all want to see but that is okay. I think we should be patient and allow things to play out a bit more. Support is being defined and resistance is being carved out as I type this, Right now resistance seems strong around 18300. I drew a triangle at the top of the chart and it looks like the candles are respecting the borders of that triangle for now. If this remains the case we may see some consolidation over the next few days. Another reason I am thinking this is the bollinger bands on the 4hr are still spread apart pretty far from each other. When the bands are tight that is when volatility shows its face. So the longer we remain in consolidation the more the bands will squeeze which ultimately will lead to a break out. (bollinger bands are good are predicting volatility but not the direction of the break out afterwards... for that you need to use an array of skills)
As we sit above 18k it is easy to feel like Superman. Untouchable. "Bitcoin will never go down again" Believe me I know how you feel. Back in December 2017 I was the same. Now is the time that you need to adhere to your plan. Now more than ever in fact. You see when we are high up on the charts (really in largely uncharted territory) big swings are far more common. A 1% swing at 6000 dollar BTC is 60 bucks. A 1% swing at 20k is 200 bucks. Another thing is traders typically dont all take profit at the same exact time, but occasionally they will and make the market dump. Perhaps we see something coming that is bearish and we want to lock that profit in just in case. But at these levels I am not surprised to see people taking profit. Last time we went to 20k I know I didnt take profit. All those gains were negated by the dump. But I did walk away with one thing. An expensive lesson.
I see that support seemed to hold yesterday. We did wick below the line I drew around 17600 but closed each candle above this level. This is significant. I know support and resistance isnt as pretty as a nicely laid fib or a cup and handle but this is what I have to work with currently. I have been doing pretty well with my trades considering my entire set up is still pretty far below us. (mainly on the daily and weekly) speaking of the daily we have been in overbought territory on the RSI for days. Maybe even over a week. We still managed to push up though. RSI is a great tool. But when the market is on fire its largely ignored. FOMO kills any effect the RSI may have.
I have started back up my trading course and went live last night. It went well. We discussed the basics and intros. I plan to go live 1 time a week and I am going to be adding content to the already extensive library I already created. Contact me if you want to join the course. (Its for noobs, if you have much experience this course isnt for you) When the market is pumping people want to learn to trade and they have the capital to put into their education unlike 9 months ago when we were all working at McDonalds because of the crash to 3800. I love bull markets! Have a great day folks. Make good choices!!! WTFDIK???
TLDR: Pardon me... Do you have any Grey Poupon?
I was pleasantly surprised when I awoke to 18K+ BTC. We still have not created that higher high we all want to see but that is okay. I think we should be patient and allow things to play out a bit more. Support is being defined and resistance is being carved out as I type this, Right now resistance seems strong around 18300. I drew a triangle at the top of the chart and it looks like the candles are respecting the borders of that triangle for now. If this remains the case we may see some consolidation over the next few days. Another reason I am thinking this is the bollinger bands on the 4hr are still spread apart pretty far from each other. When the bands are tight that is when volatility shows its face. So the longer we remain in consolidation the more the bands will squeeze which ultimately will lead to a break out. (bollinger bands are good are predicting volatility but not the direction of the break out afterwards... for that you need to use an array of skills)
As we sit above 18k it is easy to feel like Superman. Untouchable. "Bitcoin will never go down again" Believe me I know how you feel. Back in December 2017 I was the same. Now is the time that you need to adhere to your plan. Now more than ever in fact. You see when we are high up on the charts (really in largely uncharted territory) big swings are far more common. A 1% swing at 6000 dollar BTC is 60 bucks. A 1% swing at 20k is 200 bucks. Another thing is traders typically dont all take profit at the same exact time, but occasionally they will and make the market dump. Perhaps we see something coming that is bearish and we want to lock that profit in just in case. But at these levels I am not surprised to see people taking profit. Last time we went to 20k I know I didnt take profit. All those gains were negated by the dump. But I did walk away with one thing. An expensive lesson.
I see that support seemed to hold yesterday. We did wick below the line I drew around 17600 but closed each candle above this level. This is significant. I know support and resistance isnt as pretty as a nicely laid fib or a cup and handle but this is what I have to work with currently. I have been doing pretty well with my trades considering my entire set up is still pretty far below us. (mainly on the daily and weekly) speaking of the daily we have been in overbought territory on the RSI for days. Maybe even over a week. We still managed to push up though. RSI is a great tool. But when the market is on fire its largely ignored. FOMO kills any effect the RSI may have.
I have started back up my trading course and went live last night. It went well. We discussed the basics and intros. I plan to go live 1 time a week and I am going to be adding content to the already extensive library I already created. Contact me if you want to join the course. (Its for noobs, if you have much experience this course isnt for you) When the market is pumping people want to learn to trade and they have the capital to put into their education unlike 9 months ago when we were all working at McDonalds because of the crash to 3800. I love bull markets! Have a great day folks. Make good choices!!! WTFDIK???
TLDR: Pardon me... Do you have any Grey Poupon?
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