Bitcoin / TetherUSShort
[BTC] Weekly Trend Change?
Updated
Last week BTC touched 7,460, which are:
1. Weekly EMA12 (red line.)
2. Year-long resistance (horizontal black line.)
There is high chance that BTC had formed weekly lower high (compared to prev. high: 2020/2/13 @ 10,500), and are heading to higher low (compared to prev. low: 2020/3/13 @ 3,780).
The sign I am looking for is daily downtrend:
1. BTC formed ascending wedge, broke it and now retesting.
2. EMA12/26 on the brink of death cross.
During global crisis, I am expecting money to 'gathering' to big assets (like BTC/ETH), leaves altcoins pretty vulnerable (and good short targets.)
We already know the trigger of prev. market crash is virus pandemic, and I think the next trigger must have something to do with corp. earning shock. I have already see rumor around Chinese workers go 'back to work' only to find out client orders gone. I think it's a sure thing that market has to price in that global phenomena (of dropping demand), the only question is when. Could it be as soon as corp. revealing Q1 earning? or we have to wait for Q2 report? We'll see.
1. Weekly EMA12 (red line.)
2. Year-long resistance (horizontal black line.)
There is high chance that BTC had formed weekly lower high (compared to prev. high: 2020/2/13 @ 10,500), and are heading to higher low (compared to prev. low: 2020/3/13 @ 3,780).
The sign I am looking for is daily downtrend:
1. BTC formed ascending wedge, broke it and now retesting.
2. EMA12/26 on the brink of death cross.
During global crisis, I am expecting money to 'gathering' to big assets (like BTC/ETH), leaves altcoins pretty vulnerable (and good short targets.)
We already know the trigger of prev. market crash is virus pandemic, and I think the next trigger must have something to do with corp. earning shock. I have already see rumor around Chinese workers go 'back to work' only to find out client orders gone. I think it's a sure thing that market has to price in that global phenomena (of dropping demand), the only question is when. Could it be as soon as corp. revealing Q1 earning? or we have to wait for Q2 report? We'll see.
Note
Short position entered: 7,100Not because chart pattern looks bearish, but because (short) trade has better risk reward here:
1. BTC has almost 100% bounce from bottom.
2. Closed below weekly EMA12 which confirmed as resistance.
3. Entry is close to clear stop loss: prev high (around 7,400).
4. Correlation with stock, and stock already had nice bounce from bottom, and jump high today with rumor about virus cure, which looks like 'sell the news' to me.
One thing I learned from trading, is that it's all about risk reward. Technical analysis is NOT about bullish or bearish, but about how the price is close to stop loss, and the reward is larger enough compared to the risk. Then it's a good trade, that's it. Other than that are just opinions, and has nothing to do with trading.
Trade closed: stop reached
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