BTC Predictions
Updated
BTC is currently having a correction after going up from 29k to 42.5k. Looking at hourly timeframe, we can see falling wedge is forming but ofc it can fail and form parallel channel or something else. Falling wedge has a target of 41k and this is my prediction from my experiences, I think it will also form rounding bottom which is shown in the chart.
The bottom of this correction would be 37.3k imo since it is 0.618 fib level when taking the top 42.5k and bottom 28.8k. Also if you take the top from 64.8k and bottom 28.8k, 37.3k corresponds to 0.236 fibonacci level. Therefore a bounce from 37.3k is likely. That would validate the falling wedge and after going sideways for a while around 37.3-38k imo it will revisit 40k's by forming rounding bottom.
Options are expiring on August 6th which has a 35k max pain price point, that could take the price lower than 37.3k, something to consider.
Another thing to consider is that there is a CME gap between 34k and 32.5k, as shown below. That corresponds to 0.382 and 0.236 fibonacci levels (taking the fib from 42.5k as top and 28.8k as bottom) which also would make sense if we see price going down there.
Test to 34k wouldn't suprise because it is also the price of control (POC) point, as shown below.
Let's not forget the evening star occurred in 3D timeframe, it indicates downtrend.
Currently, I'm watching the volume because it looks like its going to form rounding bottom and at the bottom of rounding bottom volume is usually lowest within the pattern.
My bias is on the falling wedge's side, first we go to lower 40k's and then 34k, I would be happy with that :)
I would like to hear your opinions, thanks!
The bottom of this correction would be 37.3k imo since it is 0.618 fib level when taking the top 42.5k and bottom 28.8k. Also if you take the top from 64.8k and bottom 28.8k, 37.3k corresponds to 0.236 fibonacci level. Therefore a bounce from 37.3k is likely. That would validate the falling wedge and after going sideways for a while around 37.3-38k imo it will revisit 40k's by forming rounding bottom.
Options are expiring on August 6th which has a 35k max pain price point, that could take the price lower than 37.3k, something to consider.
Another thing to consider is that there is a CME gap between 34k and 32.5k, as shown below. That corresponds to 0.382 and 0.236 fibonacci levels (taking the fib from 42.5k as top and 28.8k as bottom) which also would make sense if we see price going down there.
Test to 34k wouldn't suprise because it is also the price of control (POC) point, as shown below.
Let's not forget the evening star occurred in 3D timeframe, it indicates downtrend.
Currently, I'm watching the volume because it looks like its going to form rounding bottom and at the bottom of rounding bottom volume is usually lowest within the pattern.
My bias is on the falling wedge's side, first we go to lower 40k's and then 34k, I would be happy with that :)
I would like to hear your opinions, thanks!
Note
Falling wedge is playing currently, target is half reached. It has a resistance on its way at 0.786 fib level (39.5k-40k). But the move is regressive so we might see the price reaching falling wedge's max target which would be ~41k.One thing that I'm being concerned is the BTC dominance.
Currently it reached to its support trend line and its RSI levels are low. There is still some room imo but it needs to be taken into the consideration. It might go down and revisit ~34k as I mentioned above from here. I know rotation is happening from BTC to alts so alts can catch up with BTC's recent move to the upside but let's not forget who runs the show. We might get some BTC dominance recovery by BTC dropping suddenly or going up regressively as happened before from 29k to 42.5k. My bias is on the downside atm to 34k due to the evening star. I'm expecting volatility soon, going to be careful at these levels with my trades.
Here is the BTC dominance chart;
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