Hey Everyone, I wanted to take this time to break down in greater detail what I see and some areas of interest in a more in depth explanation of how I see BTC today.
As observed in my prior charts, BTC broke it's down trend at the $6,400 intersection of the .618 fib of the years long primary wave leading to this point, the Logarithmic 7 years and running trend line, and the convening point of Gan zones from several meaningful positions in BTC history, and quite frankly the most logical point for a healthy and bullish asset as suggested in Elliot Wave Theory, general market cycle norms, and a very bullish and healthy ecosystem of positive/inviting sentiment.
It can be easy for new entries to the market to get emotional and terrified after the perfectly normal and healthy pull back we just experienced. Moving along, The absolute support at the pink trend line to date which destroyed the all time high of shorts for this down turn of people who failed to read the signals the chart quite clearly displayed to those observant and objective enough to see them. (Yet another contributing factor and signal of a reversal if you research the concept. AKA fear from rookies who fomo'd into the last bull run). Don't worry guys, it happens to lots and lots of people who think they're amazing because they traded trends effectively and allowed themselves to forgo more committed and thoroughly educating themselves. There's a reason even the real pro's have a top success rate of 60% of their positions. It's because they've been around long enough to see unforeseen circumstances and challenging situations. Anyone who thinks they're better than this is far more likely to be simply too inexperienced to know the difference with the exception of the VERY very on earth and are far more likely to be doing things more important that posting here with us pathetic trolls.
Moving along, we can see BTC has remained bound in the light blue rising wedge. We all know this can't last for ever! Short time spans below 4 hour look quite tired with the exception of 1 hour which shows some potential for a little more up in the oscillators. We've formed new trends in timelines all the way up to 1 day in bullish terms.
Lets talk about what reasonable expectations are for the infancy of a bull market. Essentially, Anything above that pink trend line can be considered exceptionally bullish in terms of BTCs historical trend and market norms. With the exception of the yellow “Caution Zone” where this correction cycle could still easilly meander into without reason to panic in a final consolidation and fleecing novice inverters of the last of their money on the table. This is still within the bounds of a healthy large picture trend and could be the extension of this correction as a General cycle “Contracting Wedge, not UN-similar to the MT' Gox Primary wave 2 correction. This I see as General scale and upon further analysis is a mere portion of a wave 3 Primary cycle after counting the waves and researching into perceiving the scale of the market and how it expands at an exponential rate, NOT ADDATIVE!
As seen here, the 4 hour chart gave us a golden cross in the 50/200 MA marked at the bottom of the rising wedge. Similarly we also have 6 hour shortly after. Now, as BTC is a VERY parabolic asset and experiences GIANT speculative price swings on FOMO and hype, I'd not at all be surprised to see a break of this wedge or a continued move up within the larger proposed potential rising wedge seen in gray. This said, I'm not particularly counting on that but I'm certainly prepared for the potential.
I have some areas of interest outlined for potential pivot points moving forward.
1st is the green arrow pointing at the falling wedge at the 9k areas support line. I see a path where a bounce anywhere from our present position to a drop to 9k could result in a move up to retest the 9.8k resistance. As I see as a potential to break to 10.2k from there but wouldn't .....