BTC (Y20.P4.E8).Planning the steps and observing
Updated
Hi All,
Now that BTC has gone up another micro level, I am still bearish in the short term. Below is a number of points to take note on:
==============================================
OBSERVATION and interpretation:
==============================================
> The 12,400 top level gave us a H&S (confirmed, based on the structure and price drop target) top formation ) with a strong selling (bearish div.) move. This structure was similar in formation (fractal) as last years 10K top ( I will show you the fractal below) followed by that massive drop, similar to this massive drop of $1200 in a short time. To me its evidence of the market weakening, Hence at this point I see this rally likely to fall short to making a new higher highs;
> Price is grinding away with little conviction it seems, gut feeling;
> 11,150 level looks like a strong resistance range, the neckline of the H&S as per the chart.is a critical level to pass and it needs to hold if one is to consider going long;
> As per the chart, there is a high possibility that this is a BEAR flag (based on the fractal) which is looking to break 11,150. If it does, it needs to hold it at least for a few days;
> My exit plan, if the price drops to the orange level, as per the chart ($10,750). Currently a bearish div on the 1 hr chart. See chart below.
> 10,600 is a critical level to hold. If this fails, its confirmation we are going down.
> My bearish scenario for the short term does close the CME gap.
==============================================
My thoughts:
===============================================
For now, my area of interest of shorting is now 10,875 to 10950. As I don't think it will reach the $11,150 level;
If it drops below the orange level, its my exit, playing it safe;
Area of interest for me for the time being is the confluence of the long term bottom slope trend line, between 9850 and 1050;
===============================================
1 HRLY chart, up close;
Another way to look at the chart, which is more likely reasonable
What are your thoughts?
Please give me a tick or like for this post.
Regards,
S.SAri
(ref. z/chart)
MY BEARISH SCENARIO > 60% likely at this point
=================================================
It seems the crypto market cap or BTC looking bearish in its rally.
A chart worth considering if and when the time comes, most likely a demand zone.
The 4 hrly chart demonstrates how these 4 items respond to the US Dollar dropping.
Usually BTC response with SP500 or Gold price going up is stronger than what we are seeing.
Note:
US dollar ( DXY ) is dropping and the stocks are going up ( SP500 ), crypto total market cap is not doing much.
This can obviously change quickly but listening to some more experienced traders, they are looking at Bitcoin and the ALTs are going to do a deeper correction.
NOTE: Gold is dropping and silver , with a bounce today \ currently now. The question is how much will GOLD\SILVER bounce and pull crypto with it.
Compare the fractal
Now that BTC has gone up another micro level, I am still bearish in the short term. Below is a number of points to take note on:
==============================================
OBSERVATION and interpretation:
==============================================
> The 12,400 top level gave us a H&S (confirmed, based on the structure and price drop target) top formation ) with a strong selling (bearish div.) move. This structure was similar in formation (fractal) as last years 10K top ( I will show you the fractal below) followed by that massive drop, similar to this massive drop of $1200 in a short time. To me its evidence of the market weakening, Hence at this point I see this rally likely to fall short to making a new higher highs;
> Price is grinding away with little conviction it seems, gut feeling;
> 11,150 level looks like a strong resistance range, the neckline of the H&S as per the chart.is a critical level to pass and it needs to hold if one is to consider going long;
> As per the chart, there is a high possibility that this is a BEAR flag (based on the fractal) which is looking to break 11,150. If it does, it needs to hold it at least for a few days;
> My exit plan, if the price drops to the orange level, as per the chart ($10,750). Currently a bearish div on the 1 hr chart. See chart below.
> 10,600 is a critical level to hold. If this fails, its confirmation we are going down.
> My bearish scenario for the short term does close the CME gap.
==============================================
My thoughts:
===============================================
For now, my area of interest of shorting is now 10,875 to 10950. As I don't think it will reach the $11,150 level;
If it drops below the orange level, its my exit, playing it safe;
Area of interest for me for the time being is the confluence of the long term bottom slope trend line, between 9850 and 1050;
===============================================
1 HRLY chart, up close;
Another way to look at the chart, which is more likely reasonable
What are your thoughts?
Please give me a tick or like for this post.
Regards,
S.SAri
(ref. z/chart)
MY BEARISH SCENARIO > 60% likely at this point
=================================================
It seems the crypto market cap or BTC looking bearish in its rally.
A chart worth considering if and when the time comes, most likely a demand zone.
The 4 hrly chart demonstrates how these 4 items respond to the US Dollar dropping.
Usually BTC response with SP500 or Gold price going up is stronger than what we are seeing.
Note:
US dollar ( DXY ) is dropping and the stocks are going up ( SP500 ), crypto total market cap is not doing much.
This can obviously change quickly but listening to some more experienced traders, they are looking at Bitcoin and the ALTs are going to do a deeper correction.
NOTE: Gold is dropping and silver , with a bounce today \ currently now. The question is how much will GOLD\SILVER bounce and pull crypto with it.
Compare the fractal
Note
As my post suggested yesterday, I was exiting BTC , did so in the high 10880's as the 1 hrly chart fractal suggested.Note
Note, for 4 weeks the 21 weekly MA has held and it would likely do it again.Note
Another chart I came across by switching the log off, and hence the bottom trend line or channel give 10400 range as key support.For BTC to continue the uptrend, we need this to hold.
The stock market hasn't really given us a directional bias so its hard to tell where this will go. At this point, the dip around 10400 is what I have my eyes on.
Note
This is going to be another squeeze ... at this point bearish.
Note
Hi All, its also irresponsible for me to not fact the bullish perspective as this level has been holding. The next few days will give us a clue, especially with the RSI and Phoeix.This too is a possibility.
Note
Note
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This community has signals now but with no risk management comms.
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