Bitcoin uptrend about to fail? This chart will tell you how.
Updated
On the 4 hourly chart (zoom out) you can clearly see the uptrend BTC is currently in. This is shown by the large lime green trend line from 3rd Jan 2020 up till now. As you can see BTC never closed a candle once below this lime green trend line on the 4 hourly chart.
The yellow rectangular boxes show where the EMA 10 (in blue) crossed under the EMA 55 (in yellow). BTC still kept the uptrend intact bouncing off the large lime green trend line soon after this bearish crossing of the EMA's mentioned.
The horizontal red lines are major resistance levels. The one BTC is currently trading around will give a good clue on which way BTC is heading for the short term.
The smaller lime green trend line (by the green up arrow) inside the current yellow rectangular box will indicate if BTC will move further up. BTC would need to conquer this smaller lime green trend line, the EMA 10, the EMA 55, the 10k level, the 0.5 fib level (shown by fib retracement indicator), the MA 21 and finally the 0.618 fib level to make a bullish reversal to the current short term down trend.
If BTC breaks and closes below the large lime green trend line, then BTC should move down towards the $9250 region where the small horizontal purple line is. This area is where the weekly MA 21 will roughly be if BTC drops from where it is trading currently.
However, there is also the $9500 area to break through on the way down (shown by the small horizontal yellow line) which is where the top of the Gaussian Channel sits on the weekly chart.
If BTC breaks the small horizontal purple line at $9250 then the horizontal red line will be hit at $8970, but I can't see this happening imo.
So what does all this mean? In summary, to maintain the uptrend BTC must not close below the large lime green trend line. BTC would need to move similar to what it did in the previous yellow rectangular boxes by not closing below the large lime green trend line. If BTC tracks similar by moving along the large lime green trend line and staying above it, we should see another bullish crossover of the EMA 10 over the MA 21 and then the EMA 10 over the EMA 55. This will continue the current uptrend.
Right now is not a good time to open a trade as we have no confirmation of which way BTC will move. I am already in a long and a short position on BTC.
I will add to my long at $9250 to $9300. I will also add to my long if BTC breaks all the resistance mentioned above for the bullish scenario.
I will close my short at $9250 to $9300 should BTC move down. I will also close the short if BTC moves above the small lime green trend line (by the green up arrow) and the EMA 10 is above the MA 21.
As the saying goes, if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
The yellow rectangular boxes show where the EMA 10 (in blue) crossed under the EMA 55 (in yellow). BTC still kept the uptrend intact bouncing off the large lime green trend line soon after this bearish crossing of the EMA's mentioned.
The horizontal red lines are major resistance levels. The one BTC is currently trading around will give a good clue on which way BTC is heading for the short term.
The smaller lime green trend line (by the green up arrow) inside the current yellow rectangular box will indicate if BTC will move further up. BTC would need to conquer this smaller lime green trend line, the EMA 10, the EMA 55, the 10k level, the 0.5 fib level (shown by fib retracement indicator), the MA 21 and finally the 0.618 fib level to make a bullish reversal to the current short term down trend.
If BTC breaks and closes below the large lime green trend line, then BTC should move down towards the $9250 region where the small horizontal purple line is. This area is where the weekly MA 21 will roughly be if BTC drops from where it is trading currently.
However, there is also the $9500 area to break through on the way down (shown by the small horizontal yellow line) which is where the top of the Gaussian Channel sits on the weekly chart.
If BTC breaks the small horizontal purple line at $9250 then the horizontal red line will be hit at $8970, but I can't see this happening imo.
So what does all this mean? In summary, to maintain the uptrend BTC must not close below the large lime green trend line. BTC would need to move similar to what it did in the previous yellow rectangular boxes by not closing below the large lime green trend line. If BTC tracks similar by moving along the large lime green trend line and staying above it, we should see another bullish crossover of the EMA 10 over the MA 21 and then the EMA 10 over the EMA 55. This will continue the current uptrend.
Right now is not a good time to open a trade as we have no confirmation of which way BTC will move. I am already in a long and a short position on BTC.
I will add to my long at $9250 to $9300. I will also add to my long if BTC breaks all the resistance mentioned above for the bullish scenario.
I will close my short at $9250 to $9300 should BTC move down. I will also close the short if BTC moves above the small lime green trend line (by the green up arrow) and the EMA 10 is above the MA 21.
As the saying goes, if you fail to plan, you plan to fail.
Happy trading legends!
HTBB
Note
Closed the short when it broke the smaller lime green trend line (by green down arrow). Added to the long also at this same point, close to the $9806 red horizontal resistance line.
Sadly, BTC didn't get to $9250 area and had a strong bounce off the $9500 area shown by the yellow line.
EMA 10 is now above MA 21 and about to cross over the EMA 55.
0.618 fib level also just been pierced, just wait to see if 2nd candle closes above this level. If so, up, up and away!
Trade closed manually
Bye bye bullish run! Closed long at break of yellow resistance line.
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