Will the range break soon?
Hi traders,
We've been in a range for days. In my opinion, it will break soon. The reasons are,
1- The RSI is on downtrend. Hence, based on the nature of RSI, if the price moves in the range, the RSI fluctuate around 50 level, which cause a break out on the downtrend.
2- The volume is still decreasing. This is not exactly TA but I do think that if it was a normal range movement of price, there would be fight between bears and bulls. However, I did not observe any fight. Instead, The movement is like they gave up trading. So I did draw a 'fixed range volume profile', which shows the price volumes where the trades happen the most in volume. From the beginning of the range, the price that has highest trade volume is around 36k. So we are below that value. In other words, Bears have advantage over bulls for now. To sum up, I believe Bulls do not fight anymore.
3- In general perspective, we are in downtrend from the middle of 60ks. The price went down dramatically few times, but we've never seen good top level.
Current situation:
I am currently bearish. IF the price breaks out the green area, I will be bullish.
Legend:
The grey area is the condensed area according to the fixed range volume profile.
The green area is the key level for deciding new uptrend or continuation of downtrend.
The red lines are in general key levels. There are many lines around 19k, which shows this is so strong level that I do expect strong bounces from there.
Expectations:
I will expect for price to hit the green area. Based on the situation of that time, I may take position of both direction. For now, I can't say anything.
Happy to hear your comments!
Stay safe.
We've been in a range for days. In my opinion, it will break soon. The reasons are,
1- The RSI is on downtrend. Hence, based on the nature of RSI, if the price moves in the range, the RSI fluctuate around 50 level, which cause a break out on the downtrend.
2- The volume is still decreasing. This is not exactly TA but I do think that if it was a normal range movement of price, there would be fight between bears and bulls. However, I did not observe any fight. Instead, The movement is like they gave up trading. So I did draw a 'fixed range volume profile', which shows the price volumes where the trades happen the most in volume. From the beginning of the range, the price that has highest trade volume is around 36k. So we are below that value. In other words, Bears have advantage over bulls for now. To sum up, I believe Bulls do not fight anymore.
3- In general perspective, we are in downtrend from the middle of 60ks. The price went down dramatically few times, but we've never seen good top level.
Current situation:
I am currently bearish. IF the price breaks out the green area, I will be bullish.
Legend:
The grey area is the condensed area according to the fixed range volume profile.
The green area is the key level for deciding new uptrend or continuation of downtrend.
The red lines are in general key levels. There are many lines around 19k, which shows this is so strong level that I do expect strong bounces from there.
Expectations:
I will expect for price to hit the green area. Based on the situation of that time, I may take position of both direction. For now, I can't say anything.
Happy to hear your comments!
Stay safe.
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