Before I go into the analysis I want to make clear this is a very speculative analysis at best. The macro is vastly different and there's risk of a recession. Nevertheless, I think there's definitely some value in comparing the previous market bottom with the current state of the market.
There's three main components of this analysis.
1) The main support area after the initial drop after the top, yellow area.
2) The ~47% drop from the yellow area's bottom to the bear-market bottom.
3) The bullish triangle pattern after the bottom formed.
Yes, the price pattern in the current bear market looks vastly different, but the principles of the aforementioned points are the same.
Assuming that this pattern will hold, we can expect a move towards the top of the triangle around $18,500 before moving back to the triangle's support.
The bounce from this support should lead to a break out of the triangle, with a following parabolic move towards 30k to 40k.
Will it happen? Time will tell. Hope you agree that the current market pattern looks surprisingly similar to the previous bear market bottom.
Let me know your thoughts. Please share your charts.