Good morning to all my Bitcoin family out there. Today I am taking a look at the daily time frame and I can see we are standing on the edge. This is make or break for the bulls. Either we buck this resistance or the bears might just get the upper hand folks. I keep waiting for a drop that hasn't materialized quite yet. But I wouldn't let my guard down folks. The bears have been hibernating for months and when they wake up if you arent prepared you will likely get burned. Anyways lets take a look at the chart and see what it tells us.
The first thing I want to point out today is the fact that we are at a pinch point. We are at the edge of the daily cloud with the 50 MA directly above our heads. The only way out of this today is to break the 50 MA and establish it as support once again or we will enter that cloud. After not being in the daily cloud for so long it will be a blow to confidence across the market if we do enter the cloud. But one way or another we are going to find out soon exactly what will happen.
Below us we have a few areas I would look to for support in the form of the .236 fib on the chart which is sitting around 8840. Below that we have even more support in the daily 200 MA and the bottom border of the cloud which is merged together with each other. Due to this fact I would look for this support to hold in the event of a drop. This would be around 8300. Below that we have another old gap that has been on the chart for ages. Its a small gap around 7600. No guarantees we drop that far anytime soon. I just like to be aware of my surroundings.
The 4hr time frame is telling me that we are bearish. We fell below the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr 200 MA along with the 4hr cloud recently. All of which are bearish. One look at the 4hr and its easy to see why some would be bearish. The daily seems to be on that same path and if we drop below 9k we will even reenter the weekly cloud and that will also be a blow to traders confidence.
We still have plenty of support below us but if you ask me the writing is on the wall. I would love to see the bulls surprise me and shoot us above the 2.5 year old resistance above us. The highest we can get from what I can see is 10200 without breaking resistance and likely causing fomo. I would love to see us plow through that resistance but Im thinking this test of resistance wont be the one that breaks it. We may have one more down trend and uptrend before we break it. It could take weeks or months. Regardless of the length of time we as traders are trained to be patient. So make your trades and be smart. Set stop losses and leave your emotions at the door. With the halving at our backs it is all but a memory. I do think we will see a post halving pump but it wont be for a few more months most likely. Perhaps when we bust up through that 2.5 year resistance the fomo from that will kickstart the pump all you hodlrs are dying to see!!! Im routing for you.
I know I may sound like a hopium addict and I am. I will admit that. But a little logic goes a long way. Set those stop losses and make smart trades. If you have a question about a pattern or anything on the chart there are multiple sources to double check your work. I google patterns often just to make sure I didnt goof. Its easy to think a pattern is bullish when in fact it is bearish. Many times on a chart things like this are a matter of opinion. But when the opinion is overwhelmingly one direction we see the markets react and as a result the drop due to massive amounts of traders reacting. That is all trading is after all. Loads of people and bots making similar moves causing the markets to move. The more people that react to something on the chart the bigger the pump or dump will be. Trading is a self fulfilling prophecy. So make sure you pay attention to things like sentiment and other peoples analysis as well .You may see things you would otherwise have missed due to tunnel vision. I wish you all luck with your trades and please make smart choices. But then again WTFDIK right?
TLDR: Watch out for scattered showers folks
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The first thing I want to point out today is the fact that we are at a pinch point. We are at the edge of the daily cloud with the 50 MA directly above our heads. The only way out of this today is to break the 50 MA and establish it as support once again or we will enter that cloud. After not being in the daily cloud for so long it will be a blow to confidence across the market if we do enter the cloud. But one way or another we are going to find out soon exactly what will happen.
Below us we have a few areas I would look to for support in the form of the .236 fib on the chart which is sitting around 8840. Below that we have even more support in the daily 200 MA and the bottom border of the cloud which is merged together with each other. Due to this fact I would look for this support to hold in the event of a drop. This would be around 8300. Below that we have another old gap that has been on the chart for ages. Its a small gap around 7600. No guarantees we drop that far anytime soon. I just like to be aware of my surroundings.
The 4hr time frame is telling me that we are bearish. We fell below the 4hr 50 MA and the 4hr 200 MA along with the 4hr cloud recently. All of which are bearish. One look at the 4hr and its easy to see why some would be bearish. The daily seems to be on that same path and if we drop below 9k we will even reenter the weekly cloud and that will also be a blow to traders confidence.
We still have plenty of support below us but if you ask me the writing is on the wall. I would love to see the bulls surprise me and shoot us above the 2.5 year old resistance above us. The highest we can get from what I can see is 10200 without breaking resistance and likely causing fomo. I would love to see us plow through that resistance but Im thinking this test of resistance wont be the one that breaks it. We may have one more down trend and uptrend before we break it. It could take weeks or months. Regardless of the length of time we as traders are trained to be patient. So make your trades and be smart. Set stop losses and leave your emotions at the door. With the halving at our backs it is all but a memory. I do think we will see a post halving pump but it wont be for a few more months most likely. Perhaps when we bust up through that 2.5 year resistance the fomo from that will kickstart the pump all you hodlrs are dying to see!!! Im routing for you.
I know I may sound like a hopium addict and I am. I will admit that. But a little logic goes a long way. Set those stop losses and make smart trades. If you have a question about a pattern or anything on the chart there are multiple sources to double check your work. I google patterns often just to make sure I didnt goof. Its easy to think a pattern is bullish when in fact it is bearish. Many times on a chart things like this are a matter of opinion. But when the opinion is overwhelmingly one direction we see the markets react and as a result the drop due to massive amounts of traders reacting. That is all trading is after all. Loads of people and bots making similar moves causing the markets to move. The more people that react to something on the chart the bigger the pump or dump will be. Trading is a self fulfilling prophecy. So make sure you pay attention to things like sentiment and other peoples analysis as well .You may see things you would otherwise have missed due to tunnel vision. I wish you all luck with your trades and please make smart choices. But then again WTFDIK right?
TLDR: Watch out for scattered showers folks
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_________$$$$$$$$$_________
_____$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$_____
__$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$__
$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$$
$_____$______$_____$______$
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.