How does volume REALLY works?
Volume is one of those indicators that remain as part of the standard palette of essential indicators (if there is such a thing), and yet, from intermediaries, brokers and exchanges, they teach you how to use it incorrectly. . Ultimately, as with most misconceptions, it is perpetuated by group mentality and dogma, and makes traders who use them fail. However, it is logical, these entities are not traders, they are programmers and financial agents who sell tools, and therefore their knowledge is limited to a logic that may or may not be the one that the market follows.
So how is volume actually used and how can a trader take advantage of it?
We are told that the more volume, the more likely a price movement is to occur. Some limit themselves to saying that when volume appears in a downtrend, it means that it will change, since the price has fallen to an interesting level for buyers and this new demand will raise the price. Others directly link more volume with more force in the direction of the trend.
From my point of view both are wrong, The only thing that indicates the volume is the probability that there is a change in volatility. Let me explain:
Suppose that in a port they are selling fish in several stalls, and there are 10 sellers and 10 buyers. In this situation, the price will be balanced, since there is one buyer per seller, neither the sellers are motivated to lower the price nor the buyers to offer higher prices. for what? if everyone can already buy their piece and go home.
If the situation were that there would be 8 buyers and 2 sellers, then the price would not stop rising; The 8 people who want fish could only get it from 2 people, and therefore, they would offer to buy it at a higher price so that one of the two sellers can decide and sell it to one of them.
However, here is the first problem: in trading, the volume does not tell us how many buyers and sellers there are, it only tells us the total amount. If I don't know how many of each there are, how am I going to be able to use that information to know where the price is going to go?
If in that scenario where there are 2 sellers and 8 buyers, there are instead 20 sellers and 80 buyers, would the situation change anything? There would still be a ratio of 1 to 4, and therefore the price would continue to rise, since in essence, there would still be 4 people wanting to buy for every person who wants to sell. The same happens if there are 200 or 20,000 sellers, while in return there are respectively 800 and 80,000 buyers.
What marks the variations in the price are not the people, it is the PROPORTION between the type of participation of those people. The only thing that could be used as a price prediction is the knowledge of that proportion, but in volume it does not show it.
That said, one might think that the more volume, the more volatility there is, and, for example, it could be used to buy or sell volatility in options contracts or directly by making a "grid" with other financial products, but from my point of view it is precisely otherwise:
What makes the price move is the breakdown of that harmony between buyers and sellers, regardless of the number of each of them.
Following the previous example, suppose there are two markets in the port. In one of them there are 100 people and in the other 10, and we do not know who buys or who sells in each of them.
It happens that a person enters each of the markets and we do not know if he wants to buy or sell.
In principle, we could not say that these new people will raise or lower the price, but if we look at it from a mathematical point of view, in the first market with 10 people, one person represents an increase of 10% of the participants (1 / 10 * 100) but in the market of 100 people, it is only 1% (1/100 * 100). This means that in the first market the price is more likely to change, since the moment this new person buys or sells, it would generate a 10% disproportion between supply and demand, and yet in the other market , it would only be 1%.
The percentage that represents a supposed new participant in the market tells us if greater volatility can occur.
So how is volume actually used and how can a trader take advantage of it?
We are told that the more volume, the more likely a price movement is to occur. Some limit themselves to saying that when volume appears in a downtrend, it means that it will change, since the price has fallen to an interesting level for buyers and this new demand will raise the price. Others directly link more volume with more force in the direction of the trend.
From my point of view both are wrong, The only thing that indicates the volume is the probability that there is a change in volatility. Let me explain:
Suppose that in a port they are selling fish in several stalls, and there are 10 sellers and 10 buyers. In this situation, the price will be balanced, since there is one buyer per seller, neither the sellers are motivated to lower the price nor the buyers to offer higher prices. for what? if everyone can already buy their piece and go home.
If the situation were that there would be 8 buyers and 2 sellers, then the price would not stop rising; The 8 people who want fish could only get it from 2 people, and therefore, they would offer to buy it at a higher price so that one of the two sellers can decide and sell it to one of them.
However, here is the first problem: in trading, the volume does not tell us how many buyers and sellers there are, it only tells us the total amount. If I don't know how many of each there are, how am I going to be able to use that information to know where the price is going to go?
If in that scenario where there are 2 sellers and 8 buyers, there are instead 20 sellers and 80 buyers, would the situation change anything? There would still be a ratio of 1 to 4, and therefore the price would continue to rise, since in essence, there would still be 4 people wanting to buy for every person who wants to sell. The same happens if there are 200 or 20,000 sellers, while in return there are respectively 800 and 80,000 buyers.
What marks the variations in the price are not the people, it is the PROPORTION between the type of participation of those people. The only thing that could be used as a price prediction is the knowledge of that proportion, but in volume it does not show it.
That said, one might think that the more volume, the more volatility there is, and, for example, it could be used to buy or sell volatility in options contracts or directly by making a "grid" with other financial products, but from my point of view it is precisely otherwise:
What makes the price move is the breakdown of that harmony between buyers and sellers, regardless of the number of each of them.
Following the previous example, suppose there are two markets in the port. In one of them there are 100 people and in the other 10, and we do not know who buys or who sells in each of them.
It happens that a person enters each of the markets and we do not know if he wants to buy or sell.
In principle, we could not say that these new people will raise or lower the price, but if we look at it from a mathematical point of view, in the first market with 10 people, one person represents an increase of 10% of the participants (1 / 10 * 100) but in the market of 100 people, it is only 1% (1/100 * 100). This means that in the first market the price is more likely to change, since the moment this new person buys or sells, it would generate a 10% disproportion between supply and demand, and yet in the other market , it would only be 1%.
The percentage that represents a supposed new participant in the market tells us if greater volatility can occur.
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