BTC update, important moment, down or up?
Updated
Here we are looking at a 1 hour chart for BTC.
It does seem that during 18:00-19:00 hour BTC found a local low and bounced a bit, but is it a dead cat's bounce?
I am leaning towards yes based on this criteria (also noted in text on chart):
1. BTC is being rejected by the short term moving averages and is way under long term moving average 200 DEMA
2. Four hours in the green post bounce BTC saw very little movement up
3. Rejection occurred during 19:00 on December 29 hour despite strong volume
4. Today, December 30, BTC has been rejected at bbands at least four times.
5. Market Psychology:
I believe we are in the denial phase of the second market psychology cycle that has happened during the macro cycle started in fall 2020. First we set new ath followed by crash in May/June, and then we saw a second run up and net ATH set in the fall. Since then we have only trended down.
The trend is your friend my friends and even though I like BTC and want it to succeed and believe it will long run, right now is not the time to hold.
Be cautious. We could see some big drops and revisit the 1.7T resistance zone for the total crypto market.
It does seem that during 18:00-19:00 hour BTC found a local low and bounced a bit, but is it a dead cat's bounce?
I am leaning towards yes based on this criteria (also noted in text on chart):
1. BTC is being rejected by the short term moving averages and is way under long term moving average 200 DEMA
2. Four hours in the green post bounce BTC saw very little movement up
3. Rejection occurred during 19:00 on December 29 hour despite strong volume
4. Today, December 30, BTC has been rejected at bbands at least four times.
5. Market Psychology:
I believe we are in the denial phase of the second market psychology cycle that has happened during the macro cycle started in fall 2020. First we set new ath followed by crash in May/June, and then we saw a second run up and net ATH set in the fall. Since then we have only trended down.
The trend is your friend my friends and even though I like BTC and want it to succeed and believe it will long run, right now is not the time to hold.
Be cautious. We could see some big drops and revisit the 1.7T resistance zone for the total crypto market.
Note
despite bullish signal on MACD, BTC is still rejected at bollinger bands and down on the hour 16 mins in.Note
BTC showing strength when priced down to the MA on my chart, its possible we see a false rally before we reach new lows, I am thinking the 48-49.5 zone
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