BTCUSDT Kwontative Easing Not Enough
Updated
Important things to note:
My last target was hit perfectly, but I expect some downside now.
Do Kwon propped up the market the best he could however the demand was not there.
Spot demand looks a lot better but derivatives are going to push the price down.
US10Y is pumping like crazy due to a sell off of bonds.
This can be caused by the fact the US can just snatch a countries saved money.
The bond market looks terrible and the FED will eventually save it, just not now.
Inflation is the biggest political issue, so it will be the FEDs biggest issue.
Open interest is sky high, if funding flips positive, prepare for capitulation.
If you are not aware, down trending price action + high open interest + flat funding = bearish.
So the good news is my last target was hit perfectly. In my last post I explained I would keep an eye on the price action around the year open to determine where the price is headed next. I gave 2 options, chug upwards or a lower high, which at the very least will give you an opportunity to rotate. If you needed it, I hope you used that opportunity. Now, I am a bit wary. This is due to the fact that the credit market (bond market) looks terrible. The US10Y is exploding because everyone is dumping bonds. I don't blame them because the real yields are negative at the moment. The yield curve looks terrible so I am sure a recession is around the corner (I have talked about this months ago). Because of this, I expect a capitulation in the tradfi market. Since BTC and QQQ have been joined at the hip, I doubt it will be immune. I am longer term bullish on BTC but for right now it is danger zone time. We will play it by ear but if you look at the short term, the mountain of open interest and the funding rate, it is not good. If the funding rate flips positive, expect capitulation. I will update this after my target is reached. Thanks again everyone!
My last target was hit perfectly, but I expect some downside now.
Do Kwon propped up the market the best he could however the demand was not there.
Spot demand looks a lot better but derivatives are going to push the price down.
US10Y is pumping like crazy due to a sell off of bonds.
This can be caused by the fact the US can just snatch a countries saved money.
The bond market looks terrible and the FED will eventually save it, just not now.
Inflation is the biggest political issue, so it will be the FEDs biggest issue.
Open interest is sky high, if funding flips positive, prepare for capitulation.
If you are not aware, down trending price action + high open interest + flat funding = bearish.
So the good news is my last target was hit perfectly. In my last post I explained I would keep an eye on the price action around the year open to determine where the price is headed next. I gave 2 options, chug upwards or a lower high, which at the very least will give you an opportunity to rotate. If you needed it, I hope you used that opportunity. Now, I am a bit wary. This is due to the fact that the credit market (bond market) looks terrible. The US10Y is exploding because everyone is dumping bonds. I don't blame them because the real yields are negative at the moment. The yield curve looks terrible so I am sure a recession is around the corner (I have talked about this months ago). Because of this, I expect a capitulation in the tradfi market. Since BTC and QQQ have been joined at the hip, I doubt it will be immune. I am longer term bullish on BTC but for right now it is danger zone time. We will play it by ear but if you look at the short term, the mountain of open interest and the funding rate, it is not good. If the funding rate flips positive, expect capitulation. I will update this after my target is reached. Thanks again everyone!
Note
To be completely clear, I intend to capitalize on any future capitulation which I believe will happen eventually. The only thing is trying to figure out when it will happen. I do not think it will happen at the lower end of the range unless we proceed downwards for months on end which I do not believe will happen either. I think the price is likely to bounce around regions that don't really matter to people. This area I have expressed before as the "no mans zone" or the area in which buyers and sellers are not very excited about. There is always a chance BTC goes a bit bullish around summer, but it is far too early to tell. The FED will need to get heavy handed soon (probably around the May meeting). If there is a buildup in longs, you will see a capitulation. Similarly, if we go bullish through summer and there are a buildup of longs while the economy slows, you will see a capitulation. The timing is really the only thing I am not certain of. Either way, I see this price and below and a great risk/reward. I have been buying throughout and have started again. I also have wired a lot of money to my account that I will be lending until I see a possibility for capitulation. So, if you are just interested in stacking sats, I would not worry at all. If you are actively trading, good luck. Though it looks like my prediction is working out so far, this current environment is extremely hard to predict.
Note
I am watching the shorts on BTC creep up and I don't like it. They need to wait til AFTER my green box is hit to do that. Mostly because it will cause a pump and I want to fill my orderzzzzzzz.Note
I missed my target by about 500 bucks. I was a little salty about that. However, the funding rate at the moment suggests more downside ahead. Lets see how it goes!Note
Gees, it feels like I waited forever for this. BTC is FINALLY making it's way to my target. I will put out another chart out on BTC and the overall environment soon.
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