This period of volatility is coming to an end
Updated
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The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known.
(USDT 1D chart)
It will be a question of whether the gap can continue to rise above 68.468B.
(USDC 1D chart)
We need to follow the gap rise in USDT to see if it can turn into a gap rise in USDC.
If this is not the case, and continues to gap down, you should be careful as it has the potential to limit the uptrend of the coin market.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
The key is whether it can decline after receiving resistance in the 43.75-45.68 section.
Otherwise, if it rises above 45.68, there is a possibility that a strange market will be formed where only BTC rises, or the coin market will show a large decline.
If BTC dominance starts to decline around 39.56-40.44, I expect to extend this uptrend.
The next volatility period is around March 30th.
(USDT.D 1D chart)
If funds do not continuously flow into USDT and USDC and USDT dominance drops to around 6.21, it is expected that the coin market has peaked.
A rise above 6.90-7.27 is expected to cause the coin market to plummet.
---------------------------------------
----------------------------
(BTCUSDTPERP 1D Chart)
I touched the section 23937.1-24294.1, which is highly likely to be the peak of this uptrend and is the section I mentioned.
If it rises to the 23937.1-24294.1 section and is supported or breaks upward with a surge, it is expected to touch the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
With this rise, HA-Low on the 1M chart is rising and is about to form at 20984.7.
I think this is to disprove that this rise was a meaningful rise.
So, if it makes a wobbly movement up and down relative to the 20984.7-21826.1 zone, I would expect it to start buying for the next bull run.
The important thing here is not to fall below the downtrend line (1).
As I said in the previous big trend, it was said that in order for the full-fledged uptrend to begin, it must rise above 29K.
Therefore, I think the current movement has not yet entered a full-fledged uptrend.
Also, since it lies below the M-Signal on the 1M chart, which will serve as strong resistance, the key is whether the price can sustain the price by breaking above this indicator.
This volatility period is around January 21-28 (full-scale volatility period, up to January 31).
(1h chart)
I said that this uptrend is likely to be a one-month uptrend, and that the 23937.1-24294.1 section is likely to be the peak.
The basis for this thought was the movement of the USDT, USDC, and BTC.D charts.
As we enter this period of volatility, USDT's gap continues to rise, and it seems unwilling to break the uptrend.
Since you touched the 23937.1-24463.0 section, it can be said that you have moved out of the 22471.5-22975.1 section, which was the box and sidewalk section this time.
Therefore, I think it's good to watch the situation until it forms a box or sideways section again.
Full-fledged position entry is expected to be possible only after touching the M-Signal on the 1D chart.
Before that, I think only entry that requires quick response is possible.
It shows support near 'L2', 24294.1-24463.0, and it is possible to enter the 'LONG' position when ascending.
Trade Closed: 25500.0-25882.9
'S2', when it falls in the 23937.1-24294.1 section and shows resistance at 23937.1, it is possible to enter the 'SHORT' position.
However, since the price is located above the M-Signal on the 1D chart, quicker response is required when entering a 'SHORT' position.
1st: 22471.5-22975.1
2nd: Around 21826.1
End of trading: around 20984.7
First S/L: 24294.1-24463.0
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- big picture
A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.
This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** If you share this chart, you can use the indicators normally.
** The MRHAB-T indicator includes indicators that indicate points of support and resistance.
** Check the formulas for the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators at (tradingview.com/script/OUA6XoS6-HeikinAshi-MS-Signal-HA-MS/).
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit or loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made by split trading. This is a short-term investment perspective.)
---------------------------------
Traders, welcome.
If you "Follow", you can always get new information quickly.
Please also click "Boost".
Have a nice day.
-------------------------------------
The reason why I explain the USDT, USDC, BTC.D, USDT.D chart first is that it is judged that the price change of coins (tokens) can be predicted to some extent if the overall money flow of the coin market is known.
(USDT 1D chart)
It will be a question of whether the gap can continue to rise above 68.468B.
(USDC 1D chart)
We need to follow the gap rise in USDT to see if it can turn into a gap rise in USDC.
If this is not the case, and continues to gap down, you should be careful as it has the potential to limit the uptrend of the coin market.
(BTC.D 1D chart)
The key is whether it can decline after receiving resistance in the 43.75-45.68 section.
Otherwise, if it rises above 45.68, there is a possibility that a strange market will be formed where only BTC rises, or the coin market will show a large decline.
If BTC dominance starts to decline around 39.56-40.44, I expect to extend this uptrend.
The next volatility period is around March 30th.
(USDT.D 1D chart)
If funds do not continuously flow into USDT and USDC and USDT dominance drops to around 6.21, it is expected that the coin market has peaked.
A rise above 6.90-7.27 is expected to cause the coin market to plummet.
---------------------------------------
----------------------------
(BTCUSDTPERP 1D Chart)
I touched the section 23937.1-24294.1, which is highly likely to be the peak of this uptrend and is the section I mentioned.
If it rises to the 23937.1-24294.1 section and is supported or breaks upward with a surge, it is expected to touch the M-Signal on the 1M chart.
With this rise, HA-Low on the 1M chart is rising and is about to form at 20984.7.
I think this is to disprove that this rise was a meaningful rise.
So, if it makes a wobbly movement up and down relative to the 20984.7-21826.1 zone, I would expect it to start buying for the next bull run.
The important thing here is not to fall below the downtrend line (1).
As I said in the previous big trend, it was said that in order for the full-fledged uptrend to begin, it must rise above 29K.
Therefore, I think the current movement has not yet entered a full-fledged uptrend.
Also, since it lies below the M-Signal on the 1M chart, which will serve as strong resistance, the key is whether the price can sustain the price by breaking above this indicator.
This volatility period is around January 21-28 (full-scale volatility period, up to January 31).
(1h chart)
I said that this uptrend is likely to be a one-month uptrend, and that the 23937.1-24294.1 section is likely to be the peak.
The basis for this thought was the movement of the USDT, USDC, and BTC.D charts.
As we enter this period of volatility, USDT's gap continues to rise, and it seems unwilling to break the uptrend.
Since you touched the 23937.1-24463.0 section, it can be said that you have moved out of the 22471.5-22975.1 section, which was the box and sidewalk section this time.
Therefore, I think it's good to watch the situation until it forms a box or sideways section again.
Full-fledged position entry is expected to be possible only after touching the M-Signal on the 1D chart.
Before that, I think only entry that requires quick response is possible.
It shows support near 'L2', 24294.1-24463.0, and it is possible to enter the 'LONG' position when ascending.
Trade Closed: 25500.0-25882.9
'S2', when it falls in the 23937.1-24294.1 section and shows resistance at 23937.1, it is possible to enter the 'SHORT' position.
However, since the price is located above the M-Signal on the 1D chart, quicker response is required when entering a 'SHORT' position.
1st: 22471.5-22975.1
2nd: Around 21826.1
End of trading: around 20984.7
First S/L: 24294.1-24463.0
-------------------------------------------
- big picture
A full-fledged uptrend is expected to start when it rises above 29K.
This is the 81K-95K range that we expect to touch in the next bull market.
-------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------------------
** All descriptions are for reference only and do not guarantee profit or loss in investment.
** If you share this chart, you can use the indicators normally.
** The MRHAB-T indicator includes indicators that indicate points of support and resistance.
** Check the formulas for the MS-Signal, HA-Low, and HA-High indicators at (tradingview.com/script/OUA6XoS6-HeikinAshi-MS-Signal-HA-MS/).
(Short-term Stop Loss can be said to be a point where profit or loss can be preserved or additional entry can be made by split trading. This is a short-term investment perspective.)
---------------------------------
Trade closed: target reached
The 'LONG' position, which entered near 'L1', 20794.4-20984.7, ended trading when it touched the 23937.1-24294.1 section after the first and second selling.
Note
More details will be given later.
Until then, it is necessary to check what kind of movement makes the basis for judgment.
Note
In the 1h chart, important points and sections are marked.
Depending on whether there is support or resistance on the MS-Signal indicator, a trend is likely to form on the 1h chart.
Therefore, if it moves up and down around the MS-Signal indicator, it is likely to form a box section.
When the box section is formed in this way, high-sequence box trading becomes possible.
The 5EMA on the 1D chart corresponds to the spike line due to the psychological factor.
Therefore, if you touch 5EMA, there is a possibility of sudden movement, so be careful.
Therefore, even if it falls below the MS-Signal, there is a possibility of touching 5EMA on the 1D chart and rising, so be careful when entering a 'SHORT' position.
The HA-High, +100 indicator is located at 23701.0 and 23742.9.
Therefore, if it rises above the 23701.0-23742.9 section and shows support, it is likely to rise.
Trading with only the trend on the 1h chart or the support and resistance lines on the chart is likely to get whipsawed, so it is important to at least show the flow on the 1D chart to avoid getting whipsawed on the lower time frame charts you trade.
Note
(question)If the price is going up but the strength indicator is going down, can we assume that the trend is declining? Or is it a risky decision
(answer)
It could be that the uptrend is getting weaker.
this talk
1. There is a possibility of a pinched neck
2. It can be a move to fall
You can think of it like this.
Most important to these movements is where they are supported or resisted at which support and resistance points or zones.
For that, it is important to mark points of support and resistance that do not reflect your own psychology.
Therefore, you need to have support and resistance lines pre-drawn before the price goes up or down, or automatically drawn support and resistance lines like my chart.
Looking at the 1h chart,
1. Overbought zone: 1 indicator
2. Break out of the overbought zone: 2 indicators
3. Break out of the oversold zone: 1 indicator
- 3 indicators show high uptrend
Therefore, it can be interpreted as showing a weak uptrend at present.
Looking at the 1D chart,
1. Overbought zone: 3 indicators
2. Break out of the oversold zone: 1 indicator
- 3 indicators show high uptrend
Therefore, it can be interpreted as showing a strong uptrend.
Therefore, it can be seen that on the 1D chart, whether it is supported or resisted in the 23937.1-24294.1 area becomes important.
No matter how strong the uptrend is, if it fails to break through the support and resistance zones, it is highly likely that disappointment will eventually pour out.
So, for now, rather than looking at the trend, we need to see if we can break through the 23937.1-24294.1 section.
You need to see at least 1-3 days of movement to judge support and resistance.
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