Possible Swing trade for $BTI if it hits $35
$35 seems to be a strong support level for British American Tobacco, will be looking to sell some puts or go into a long position if it falls to $35 and below. Also earnings at approximately $4 per share will provide great support as it will be trading at p/e of 8.75 which is extremely cheap for a global consumer defensive business growing at 2-3% EPS. Additionally as its a UK based stock listed as an ADR in the United states, there would not be the usual 30% US withholding taxes on BTI's dividends which improves its overall total return profile.
Total expected return (1 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 66% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 79% total annualized return
Total expected return (5 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 11% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 22% annualized CAGR return for next 5 years
Total expected return (1 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 66% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 79% total annualized return
Total expected return (5 year time frame if it returns to 15X EPS multiple)
= 8% ($3 per share dividends) + 3% EPS growth X 11% (possible revaluation tailwind if revert to 15X multiple) = 22% annualized CAGR return for next 5 years
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