Watch that wave!
Since a couple of charts I've been bearish on BTSBTC, in spite of the price moving higher over the past 2 weeks or so. I'm confirming my "Messy Macro View" idea here: there's a strong downwards fibonacci channel at play here, and very little to be excited about in the crypto market. As I've said before, everybody is basically waiting for everybody else to start a strong, impulsive move up. The result is, of course, that nobody's buying much, volume is reduced to a trickle showing little confidence in the crypto market in general, and in the end, prices drop because people phase out of the market. With the little volume there is, people leaving the market can cause steep drops, and I'm convinced the recent Goldman Sachs move was only the trigger for a move down that was going to happen anyway.
But, back to the chart shown here! In fib channels the centerline is key, shown here in purple. From may to july BTSBTC tried to break through, succeeding at the start of last july. The centerline then became support, resistance, support and now, finally resistance again, with the break to the upside turning out to be weak.
So, I think we're about to put in the 5th wave down of the last leg down, as shown above. No predictions about how far we'll go, because there are so many pivot levels that are significant that predicting the right one is a waste of time.
My practical advice at the moment would be five things:
1) Short or stay out of the market. Don't go long for now.
2) Wait for the daily RSI to drop below 30 - something that hasn't happened to BTSBTC in ages. Given that our "bubble peak" in june 2017 went to 87 on the daily RSI (which is 13 above the 70 signal line) , it's only fair to assume that we can also drop significantly below the bottom 30 RSI signal line.
3) Monitor for subwave structure in the current leg down.
4) As the price reveals itself, watch where pivot levels cross with fib channel lines.
5) IF (and that's always a big if) price drops down, dollar cost average in when the subwave structure and daily RSI seem to indicate the end of the wave down.
After that, I'm confident we'll go up again and see some nice gains.
But, back to the chart shown here! In fib channels the centerline is key, shown here in purple. From may to july BTSBTC tried to break through, succeeding at the start of last july. The centerline then became support, resistance, support and now, finally resistance again, with the break to the upside turning out to be weak.
So, I think we're about to put in the 5th wave down of the last leg down, as shown above. No predictions about how far we'll go, because there are so many pivot levels that are significant that predicting the right one is a waste of time.
My practical advice at the moment would be five things:
1) Short or stay out of the market. Don't go long for now.
2) Wait for the daily RSI to drop below 30 - something that hasn't happened to BTSBTC in ages. Given that our "bubble peak" in june 2017 went to 87 on the daily RSI (which is 13 above the 70 signal line) , it's only fair to assume that we can also drop significantly below the bottom 30 RSI signal line.
3) Monitor for subwave structure in the current leg down.
4) As the price reveals itself, watch where pivot levels cross with fib channel lines.
5) IF (and that's always a big if) price drops down, dollar cost average in when the subwave structure and daily RSI seem to indicate the end of the wave down.
After that, I'm confident we'll go up again and see some nice gains.
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