Summary:
BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) remains compressed near historic lows. This analysis explores the potential for a volatility expansion cycle, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and how shifts in volatility may precede directional moves in BTC and the broader crypto market.
Chart Context:
Timeframe: Weekly (1W)
Current BVOL: ~13.23
Historical Support Zone: ~11.76–15 (consolidation base since 2022)
Resistance Area: ~25–35 (marked breakout threshold)
Fibonacci Retracement (from peak ~192.79):
23.6% = 56.17 → 2nd TP
38.2% = 89.01 → 3rd TP
48.6% = 99.74 → Intermediate fib zone
61.8% = 123.63 → Cycle expansion cap (potential BTC top region)
100% = 192.79 → All-time spike (rare volatility events)
Key Technical Observations:
Consolidation Floor: Since mid-2022, BVOL has hovered near extreme lows often a prelude to sharp directional moves.
Support-turned-Resistance: Past volatility surges often topped near fib clusters (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%). These will likely act as TP zones during volatility spikes.
Expected Path:
Base breakout above 25 → TP1 = 35
Acceleration phase → TP2 = 56–60
High volatility climax → TP3 = 85–89
Volatility Trend Commentary:
Current Phase: Low volatility compression, common in accumulation phases.
Volatility Expansion Signal: A break above the 25–35 band may signal the start of a high-volatility impulse (typically aligned with large BTC directional moves).
Dotted Paths on the chart reflect the two key expansion possibilities:
Straight rally up to TP3 (85)
Mid-stage pullback post-TP2 (bear trap scenario)
Macro Correlation:
BVOL vs BTCUSD: Historically, BVOL lows precede strong BTC trends — both bull and bear cycles.
BVOL vs BTC.D: BVOL surges often shift dominance; either BTC leads during volatility or altcoins rotate post-BTC move.
BVOL vs TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3:
Volatility compression in BVOL is directly tied to range-bound TOTAL3.
Total:
Total2:
Total3:
BVOL expansion is often mirrored by strong TOTAL2 & TOTAL rallies.
Confluence seen between BVOL TP zones and critical fib levels in TOTAL charts.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Volatility Expansion Expected: Current structure is unsustainable; expansion is highly probable in coming weeks/months.
Watch BTC Price Action: If BTC breaks key levels while BVOL rises → Confirmed trend.
Portfolio Strategy: Prepare for volatility-driven liquidation zones. Use BVOL to gauge position sizing and risk.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis is part of the BitonGroup Macro Series.
BVOL is not a directional indicator but a volatility proxy. use in combination with price and dominance metrics.
Always combine volatility forecasts with proper stop-loss and leverage management.
BVOL (Bitcoin Historical Volatility Index) remains compressed near historic lows. This analysis explores the potential for a volatility expansion cycle, key Fibonacci retracement levels, and how shifts in volatility may precede directional moves in BTC and the broader crypto market.
Chart Context:
Timeframe: Weekly (1W)
Current BVOL: ~13.23
Historical Support Zone: ~11.76–15 (consolidation base since 2022)
Resistance Area: ~25–35 (marked breakout threshold)
Fibonacci Retracement (from peak ~192.79):
23.6% = 56.17 → 2nd TP
38.2% = 89.01 → 3rd TP
48.6% = 99.74 → Intermediate fib zone
61.8% = 123.63 → Cycle expansion cap (potential BTC top region)
100% = 192.79 → All-time spike (rare volatility events)
Key Technical Observations:
Consolidation Floor: Since mid-2022, BVOL has hovered near extreme lows often a prelude to sharp directional moves.
Support-turned-Resistance: Past volatility surges often topped near fib clusters (23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%). These will likely act as TP zones during volatility spikes.
Expected Path:
Base breakout above 25 → TP1 = 35
Acceleration phase → TP2 = 56–60
High volatility climax → TP3 = 85–89
Volatility Trend Commentary:
Current Phase: Low volatility compression, common in accumulation phases.
Volatility Expansion Signal: A break above the 25–35 band may signal the start of a high-volatility impulse (typically aligned with large BTC directional moves).
Dotted Paths on the chart reflect the two key expansion possibilities:
Straight rally up to TP3 (85)
Mid-stage pullback post-TP2 (bear trap scenario)
Macro Correlation:
BVOL vs BTCUSD: Historically, BVOL lows precede strong BTC trends — both bull and bear cycles.
BVOL vs BTC.D: BVOL surges often shift dominance; either BTC leads during volatility or altcoins rotate post-BTC move.
BVOL vs TOTAL / TOTAL2 / TOTAL3:
Volatility compression in BVOL is directly tied to range-bound TOTAL3.
Total:
Total2:
Total3:
BVOL expansion is often mirrored by strong TOTAL2 & TOTAL rallies.
Confluence seen between BVOL TP zones and critical fib levels in TOTAL charts.
Bias & Strategy Implication:
Volatility Expansion Expected: Current structure is unsustainable; expansion is highly probable in coming weeks/months.
Watch BTC Price Action: If BTC breaks key levels while BVOL rises → Confirmed trend.
Portfolio Strategy: Prepare for volatility-driven liquidation zones. Use BVOL to gauge position sizing and risk.
Notes & Disclaimers:
This analysis is part of the BitonGroup Macro Series.
BVOL is not a directional indicator but a volatility proxy. use in combination with price and dominance metrics.
Always combine volatility forecasts with proper stop-loss and leverage management.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.