Long

The French Election Is Going To Trigger The Next Major Move

Updated

The upcomming french election is goint to trigger the next major move at least for all European Stockmarkets.

Technical Analysis can not predict in wich direction this move will go.

Yesterdays Charts can´t what will happen on Monday April 24th 2017 or on Monday 05/08/ 2017. The result of the France Election will be to powerfull and is going to trigger the next major move for global stockmarkets. Whoever is able to predict the result of the France Election will beat the markets.

Note

Basics - Opinion polling for the French presidential election, 2017

This page lists public opinion polls in connection with the 2017 French presidential election, which will be held on 23 April 2017, with a run-off on 7 May 2017 if no candidate secures an absolute majority of the vote in the first round.
Source: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_French_presidential_election,_2017

Note

APR 12 2017 - Polls, latest:

25% LePen
24% Macron
19% Fillon
18,5% Melenchon

Note

APR 12 - New Polls showing Melenchon to fall behind

24 % LePen
23 % Macron
20 % Fillon
18 % Melenchon

But same time the Spread Italien Government Bonds to German Bunds is sky rocking:

Note

APR 13 2017 - it's now on the news: Hard left, hard right, or center? French economy may decide

Quote: By Jeremy Gaunt
LONDON (Reuters) - If Donald Trump's election in the United States and Britain's decision to quit the European Union stirred the global economic waters, then there is the potential for a tsunami on the near horizon. The coming week is the last before the first round of France's presidential election on April 23. It has already been a barrel of surprises -- an incumbent not running, the far right in ascendance, an independent seen as likely winner, a scandal hampering the early favorite.
But the latest twist -- one with arguably the most potential global economic impact -- could conceivably see a far-left candidate, one-time communist Jean-Luc Mélenchon, make it through to the May 7 run-off against a far-right nationalist, Marine Le Pen.
The potential economic shock stems from the fact that both are against the euro and the European Union, threatening the stability and even existence of both. The word Frexit -- the Gallic version of Brexit -- has been doing the rounds. Source: investing.com/news/economic-indicators/hard-left,-hard-right,-or-center -french-economy-may-decide-474171

Note

APR 13 2017 Poll: Macron taking the Lead, LePen drops to the lowest level since 18 month.

23,5% Macron
22,5% LePen
20,0% Fillon
18,5% Melenchon

Note

APR 14 2017: Marine LePen losing more voters

23% Macron
22% LePen
20% Fillon
20% Melechon

The French elction now is unpredictable.

Note

APR 14 2017: French presidential race tightens further as vote looms
Source: reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKBN17G0Q2

Note

APR 19 2017: Macron clings on to lead in tense French election race
Centrist Emmanuel Macron held on to his lead as favorite to win France's presidential election, a closely-watched poll showed on Wednesday, although it showed that the first round of voting at the weekend Sunday remains too close to call. Source: investing.com/news/world-news/macron,-le-pen-cling-on-to-first-round-lead-in-french-election-race:-le-monde-cevipof-poll-475261

Note

APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on bloomberg.com
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Sorce: bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2017-04-19/french-election-shocker-pollsters-baffled-by-four-way-contest

Note

APR 20 2017 -Mind the risk:
cnbc.com/2017/04/20/publicis-ceo-maurice-levy-gives-his-nightmare-scenario-for-the-french-elections.html

Note

APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result
investing.com/news/stock-market-news/futures-rally-as-french-worries-ease

Note

APR 26 2017 - Le Pen not an option as French far-left polls members on election round two
investing.com/news/world-news/le-pen-not-an-option-as-french-far-left-polls-members-on-election-round-two-477426

Note

Le Pen, Macron spar as French presidential race narrows slightly
investing.com/news/world-news/macron-campaign-for-french-presidency-off-to-slower-start-than-le-pen:-poll-477875

Note

NASDAQ closes at record high ahead of major techs earnings.
cnbc.com/2017/04/27/us-markets.html

Note

Defeated first-round candidate Dupont-Aignan endorses Le Pen for French president
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-aignan-idUSKBN17U2OR?il=0

Note

Le Pen Has Potential Prime Minister, No Rush on Euro Exit
bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-04-29/le-pen-has-potential-prime-minister-no-rush-on-euro-exit

Note

Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
reuters.com/article/us-france-election-idUSKCN18E07E

Trade closed: stop reached

All long trades on European Stockmarkets Indices closed.

Bias short term likely to be on the downside.

Major Negativ Event: Gemany's Carmakers Dragging Down The DAX

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