CADCHF Long on Double bottom.
Updated
CADCHF made a DB on the 1h/15m and the reached above the peak in between. The setup is on 15m with enter on a 61.8 retrace relative to that in between peak. If price seem to struggle getting there I may enter earlier. This will be my 3rd try on this pair.
Note
Ops I forgot to set the stop properly on the position indicator, so the stop is at 0.7314 - just for the record.Order cancelled
Price only reached 50% and then took out last high, so I simply entered at that break, basically reactivating my old trade.Trade active
OK looking for a 2nd try with this trade, now with adjusted limit order as the high changed. May still not work, or maybe we will get a spike down on FOMC to trigger it. Let's see.Note
The Double Bottom originally outlined in this idea has been invalidated and I was stopped on that trade. In fact, I have been stopped twice but as I believe in the long term prospective of this pair, I was able to get back in again at the very low on that FOMC spike (I wished for above). However, as things look I now expect that we will come down to test the 0.7303 low and I expect it to hold even if we get an overshoot.Indeed, there is another smaller double bottom down there, from end of September, beginning of October, but there is no good nearby structure to hide a stop behind until 0.7264 so I have mine down there as I don't like to be stopped once again ;-)
Note
Nice move today and it's possible the low is in place and we won't get that 0.7303 low. Thus I have relabeled the chart, but I'd like to see it get above the 1-hour tunnel, which has suppressed it since broke below in Oct, and furthermore take out the 0.7366 high to the left. That would confirm a Higher Low and be a good sign for my bullish view.Note
Starts to look a bit better. We have a new DB and price has now been above the 1h tunnel twice, but not been able to stay above. At the same time, we have got something of a DT in between, so price seems to be in something of a contraction/compression, or it may be a so caller Barrier Diagonal down here, which would indicate a terminal wave. As you can see, if comparing with earlier charts, I have changed the count somewhat, but important to note that we are talking about the 1h TF here. In my view, everything below the Daily TF is "noisy" in regards of EW which often leads to that counts have to be changed/adjusted while on higher TFs they basically stay the same. This is a part of EW that seldom is talked about and confuses many.
So what I'm watching here now is to first of all getting above the tunnel again, breaking that diagonal TL, staying above and then breaking the (X) wave high. That would in my view confirm my bullish bias, which so far only is a bias I still have a high conviction for.
Note
Sorry, "(X) wave high" should really have been "(B) wave high" as I slightly changed the count here, but forgot to rewire my brain ;-)Note
Finally
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.