Scenario 1 (Small Long and Long Short)
I believe that the first scenario may occur more than the second scenario as I still believe this pair may be in a down trend and channel, as this pair has created a new low, I believe a pullback to the 50% zone or 0.618 zone on the Fib will allow us a great oppurtunity to short the market. Just an overview, hope you enjoy, and trade safe :)
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