CADJPY - The bigger picture - Giant bullish triangle
Updated
The big picture paints a large triangle dating back to beginning of the financial crisis and that seem to be closing in on its final solution may be one sign that we are approaching the end game of the whole debacle.
Right now we are in the final stages of red wave (d), more precisely in Primary wave 5 of cycle c. This wave is a bit tricky to count, I would admit, and I'm not claiming I have it absolutely right here as there are alternative waves to count it, but leaning on the AO indicator and the weekly tunnel, this appeals to me as my main count. However, I would say the most important marking on this chart is the imbalance (blue strip) and supply zone in red above it. So what I'll be looking for here is simply what kind of reaction we will get at that imbalance from 2015, which I'm certain the market wants to close. But will we just rush through it up to grab supply or will it give us a reaction strong enough to validate as wave (e) and at the same time mark the end of wave 5 ?
Right now we are in the final stages of red wave (d), more precisely in Primary wave 5 of cycle c. This wave is a bit tricky to count, I would admit, and I'm not claiming I have it absolutely right here as there are alternative waves to count it, but leaning on the AO indicator and the weekly tunnel, this appeals to me as my main count. However, I would say the most important marking on this chart is the imbalance (blue strip) and supply zone in red above it. So what I'll be looking for here is simply what kind of reaction we will get at that imbalance from 2015, which I'm certain the market wants to close. But will we just rush through it up to grab supply or will it give us a reaction strong enough to validate as wave (e) and at the same time mark the end of wave 5 ?
Note
The Covid-19 Omicron (B.1.1.529) variant threw a wrench in to the works of market at the end of last week and it's still too early to say what kind of damage it has caused to the longer term picture. From the information that has come through over the weekend it appears as if we have had a risk-off overreaction, once again. The move in the Euro across the markets was very suspicious in my view and I expect much of it, if not all and potentially more, will be retracted. Maybe the coming week already. In any way, I like to see more data as the week takes off before I make updates to my charts, but cautiously I think this can be a buying opportunity. In fact, if Omicron competes out Delta and proves to present much milder symptoms, resulting in less hospitalizations and decreasing death figures then we may be in for an even stronger risk-on move going forward. However, it's early days yet so let's wait for the data.
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