**Market Outlook and Technical Perspective**
**Key Price Levels:**
- **Resistance Threshold:** 113.030 – A decisive break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, suggesting potential trend reversal.
- **Support Targets:** Immediate downside targets are 106.332 and 104.805, with a critical *Major Support* at 102.800. A close below 102.800 confirms renewed selling momentum.
**Chart Pattern & Trend Dynamics:**
- A **descending flag pattern** is emerging on the chart, typically a bearish continuation signal. This reinforces expectations of a downward leg, targeting the noted support levels.
- Price remains below the **WEMA21** (21-period Weighted Exponential Moving Average), which now serves as dynamic resistance. Any upward retracement could face selling pressure near this moving average.
**Momentum Analysis:**
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** At 41, the RSI reflects bearish momentum but is not yet oversold. A sustained downtrend in the RSI (marked by its own unbroken bearish trendline) aligns with the price’s weakness.
- **Recent Price Action:** The peak at 111.550 (20 Nov 2024) established a lower high, signaling fading bullish strength and opening the door for further declines.
**Scenario Analysis:**
1. **Bearish Continuation:** While price holds below 113.030, the path of least resistance favors a drop toward 102.800, especially if sellers breach 106.332.
2. **Bullish Invalidation:** A close above 113.030 or a break of the RSI’s downtrend line could signal short-term bearish exhaustion, warranting caution for downside bets.
**Conclusion:**
The confluence of the descending flag, resistance at WEMA21, and RSI momentum supports a bearish bias. Traders should monitor reactions at 106.332 and 104.805 for downside acceleration, while guarding against a surprise break above 113.030 that would challenge the current thesis.
**Key Price Levels:**
- **Resistance Threshold:** 113.030 – A decisive break above this level would negate the bearish outlook, suggesting potential trend reversal.
- **Support Targets:** Immediate downside targets are 106.332 and 104.805, with a critical *Major Support* at 102.800. A close below 102.800 confirms renewed selling momentum.
**Chart Pattern & Trend Dynamics:**
- A **descending flag pattern** is emerging on the chart, typically a bearish continuation signal. This reinforces expectations of a downward leg, targeting the noted support levels.
- Price remains below the **WEMA21** (21-period Weighted Exponential Moving Average), which now serves as dynamic resistance. Any upward retracement could face selling pressure near this moving average.
**Momentum Analysis:**
- **RSI (Relative Strength Index):** At 41, the RSI reflects bearish momentum but is not yet oversold. A sustained downtrend in the RSI (marked by its own unbroken bearish trendline) aligns with the price’s weakness.
- **Recent Price Action:** The peak at 111.550 (20 Nov 2024) established a lower high, signaling fading bullish strength and opening the door for further declines.
**Scenario Analysis:**
1. **Bearish Continuation:** While price holds below 113.030, the path of least resistance favors a drop toward 102.800, especially if sellers breach 106.332.
2. **Bullish Invalidation:** A close above 113.030 or a break of the RSI’s downtrend line could signal short-term bearish exhaustion, warranting caution for downside bets.
**Conclusion:**
The confluence of the descending flag, resistance at WEMA21, and RSI momentum supports a bearish bias. Traders should monitor reactions at 106.332 and 104.805 for downside acceleration, while guarding against a surprise break above 113.030 that would challenge the current thesis.
Note
Note
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.