CADJPY_Technical_Fundamental_01042019Weekly
Technical
MACD is over the zero line, indicating a bullish trend
RSI hovering below 70 line
pricing surfing below D1 and W1 descending trend line
H4 Candles surfing on an ascending trend line
if fundamental factors drive the price upwards and breakout above line 84.00, we might see a price hike to 85.500 zone given enough volatility
if fundamental factors drive the bears strong and break down below the ascending trend line, We might see the price fall down to zone 82.600
Fundamental
JPY exchange rate will depend on the following factors this week -
April 1:
i. Capital Expenditure
ii. Manufacturing Outlook
iii. Manufacturing index
A high reading in Capital Expenditure is positive for the economy. It is highly connected to the BoJ interest rate. The previous Interest rate was decided to be (-0.1)% on March 15, 2019, which was unchanged from the previous one. So I am expecting an unchanged capital expenditure also. But as there is a very high possibility of economic growth in 2019, a low reading of capital expenditure is not impossible. In this case, JPY will be bearish if there is a low reading.
Japanese industrial production is now 8 months low which is also expected to decrease. Considering the Japanese economy it seems almost certain. In this case, JPY is bearish. Manufacturing index is also going to fall if the outlook is correct and JPY will be bearish.
Overall daily forecast: JPY bearish
April 4:
i. FCI (Foreign Capital Investment/Stocks)
Japan's biggest capital market index Nikkei has substantially grown since December 2018. It also has a constant average growth of around 0.5% per day. Which may attract a good number of investors for stocks of Japan. This may make JPY a bit strong.
Overall daily forecast: JPY bullish
April 5:
i. Overall Household Spending (YoY)
iI. Leading Economic Index
Household spendings mainly depend on economic growth, avg income, inflation as well as unemployment. Not going too deep, I am expecting an unchanged or increased household spending which may lead JPY to bullish. Among 12 indicators of an economic index, most of them are in a good position to show a higher economic index. So the expectation is to see JPY in the bullish mood.
Overall daily Forecast: Bullish
Overall weekly Forecast: May start with a bearish tendency but will end up being bullish.
MACD is over the zero line, indicating a bullish trend
RSI hovering below 70 line
pricing surfing below D1 and W1 descending trend line
H4 Candles surfing on an ascending trend line
if fundamental factors drive the price upwards and breakout above line 84.00, we might see a price hike to 85.500 zone given enough volatility
if fundamental factors drive the bears strong and break down below the ascending trend line, We might see the price fall down to zone 82.600
Fundamental
JPY exchange rate will depend on the following factors this week -
April 1:
i. Capital Expenditure
ii. Manufacturing Outlook
iii. Manufacturing index
A high reading in Capital Expenditure is positive for the economy. It is highly connected to the BoJ interest rate. The previous Interest rate was decided to be (-0.1)% on March 15, 2019, which was unchanged from the previous one. So I am expecting an unchanged capital expenditure also. But as there is a very high possibility of economic growth in 2019, a low reading of capital expenditure is not impossible. In this case, JPY will be bearish if there is a low reading.
Japanese industrial production is now 8 months low which is also expected to decrease. Considering the Japanese economy it seems almost certain. In this case, JPY is bearish. Manufacturing index is also going to fall if the outlook is correct and JPY will be bearish.
Overall daily forecast: JPY bearish
April 4:
i. FCI (Foreign Capital Investment/Stocks)
Japan's biggest capital market index Nikkei has substantially grown since December 2018. It also has a constant average growth of around 0.5% per day. Which may attract a good number of investors for stocks of Japan. This may make JPY a bit strong.
Overall daily forecast: JPY bullish
April 5:
i. Overall Household Spending (YoY)
iI. Leading Economic Index
Household spendings mainly depend on economic growth, avg income, inflation as well as unemployment. Not going too deep, I am expecting an unchanged or increased household spending which may lead JPY to bullish. Among 12 indicators of an economic index, most of them are in a good position to show a higher economic index. So the expectation is to see JPY in the bullish mood.
Overall daily Forecast: Bullish
Overall weekly Forecast: May start with a bearish tendency but will end up being bullish.
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