Here's a detailed technical analysis using Elliott Wave Theory (EWT), Fibonacci, and volume/RSI interpretation for CARYSIL LTD (Weekly Chart):
🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
1. Trend & Structure
A falling trendline was broken decisively with strong bullish candles and high volume—indicating a trend reversal.
The recent structure indicates a potential Wave 3 rally if we consider the Elliott Wave framework from the bottom near ₹431.
🌀 Elliott Wave Analysis (Probable Count)
Wave 1: Approx ₹431 → ₹730 (early 2024)
Wave 2: Correction from ₹730 → ₹520 (shallow, possibly zig-zag or flat)
Wave 3: Now ongoing, from ₹520 → ₹917+ (current high).
Wave 3 typically shows impulsive strength, supported here by volume and breakout behavior.
Wave 4 & 5: Yet to unfold; Wave 4 may likely consolidate near ₹820–850 before a final push toward ₹1000+ (Wave 5).
📐 Fibonacci Levels
Assuming:
Wave 1 = 431 to 730 = 299 pts
Projecting Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 = ~483 pts
From Wave 2 low (₹520) → Wave 3 potential target = ₹520 + ₹483 = ₹1003 (nearly tested)
Key Levels:
61.8% retracement of full fall (approx ₹1150 → ₹431) = ~₹900–920 zone (now reached)
Golden Ratio resistance in play
If this level is cleanly surpassed, next targets using Fib Extension:
1.618 of Wave 1 = ₹1000–1020
2.618 = ₹1150 (next major resistance)
📊 Volume & RSI Analysis
Volume Surge: Confirms institutional buying interest on breakout.
RSI: Near 69 (overbought zone), but typical of Wave 3. Not a sell signal yet, but keep watch for divergence.
RSI-based MA: Still lagging around 51—showing momentum has only recently shifted strong.
✅ Suggestions
Short-Term:
Some resistance near ₹920–940 likely due to previous swing highs and Fib zone.
Expect mild pullback/consolidation (possible Wave 4) before Wave 5 targets.
Medium-Term:
Hold with SL below ₹840 (previous breakout zone).
Watch for price-volume confirmation on any move beyond ₹950.
Fibonacci Retracement for Support:
Key pullback support zones: ₹850 / ₹800 (0.382 / 0.5 retracement of Wave 3).
📚 Learnings / Takeaways
Trendline + volume breakout with impulsive candles is a reliable Wave 3 signal.
Fibonacci extensions + RSI give confluence levels for Wave 3 exhaustion.
Don’t pre-empt Wave 5 without letting Wave 4 structure complete.
RSI divergence is often seen between Wave 3 and 5 (watch for this in the future).
🔍 Chart Analysis Summary:
1. Trend & Structure
A falling trendline was broken decisively with strong bullish candles and high volume—indicating a trend reversal.
The recent structure indicates a potential Wave 3 rally if we consider the Elliott Wave framework from the bottom near ₹431.
🌀 Elliott Wave Analysis (Probable Count)
Wave 1: Approx ₹431 → ₹730 (early 2024)
Wave 2: Correction from ₹730 → ₹520 (shallow, possibly zig-zag or flat)
Wave 3: Now ongoing, from ₹520 → ₹917+ (current high).
Wave 3 typically shows impulsive strength, supported here by volume and breakout behavior.
Wave 4 & 5: Yet to unfold; Wave 4 may likely consolidate near ₹820–850 before a final push toward ₹1000+ (Wave 5).
📐 Fibonacci Levels
Assuming:
Wave 1 = 431 to 730 = 299 pts
Projecting Wave 3 = 1.618 × Wave 1 = ~483 pts
From Wave 2 low (₹520) → Wave 3 potential target = ₹520 + ₹483 = ₹1003 (nearly tested)
Key Levels:
61.8% retracement of full fall (approx ₹1150 → ₹431) = ~₹900–920 zone (now reached)
Golden Ratio resistance in play
If this level is cleanly surpassed, next targets using Fib Extension:
1.618 of Wave 1 = ₹1000–1020
2.618 = ₹1150 (next major resistance)
📊 Volume & RSI Analysis
Volume Surge: Confirms institutional buying interest on breakout.
RSI: Near 69 (overbought zone), but typical of Wave 3. Not a sell signal yet, but keep watch for divergence.
RSI-based MA: Still lagging around 51—showing momentum has only recently shifted strong.
✅ Suggestions
Short-Term:
Some resistance near ₹920–940 likely due to previous swing highs and Fib zone.
Expect mild pullback/consolidation (possible Wave 4) before Wave 5 targets.
Medium-Term:
Hold with SL below ₹840 (previous breakout zone).
Watch for price-volume confirmation on any move beyond ₹950.
Fibonacci Retracement for Support:
Key pullback support zones: ₹850 / ₹800 (0.382 / 0.5 retracement of Wave 3).
📚 Learnings / Takeaways
Trendline + volume breakout with impulsive candles is a reliable Wave 3 signal.
Fibonacci extensions + RSI give confluence levels for Wave 3 exhaustion.
Don’t pre-empt Wave 5 without letting Wave 4 structure complete.
RSI divergence is often seen between Wave 3 and 5 (watch for this in the future).
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.