Daily 4XSetUps - CBK Consolidated With A Glimmer Of Hope

2024/12/10
Daily 4XSetUps - CBK Consolidated With A Glimmer Of Hope
“big bullish GAP from September 2024 has been held for now!
price action bullish again? is the takeover fantasy still there?”

The share almost reached our stop price - but has been accelerating ever since. There is no groundbreaking news, but both management and the UniCredit board recently made public statements. I remembered a statement that I don't want to withhold from you at this point. CFO Bettina Orlopp said last week at the Financial Times Banking Summit that "Europe needs larger banks in order to be able to keep up with competitors from the USA." However, she emphasized that "Commerzbank should remain independent." UniCredit got involved in September and directly holds around 9% of all shares. She further stated that "the financial institution is ready to explore options with any shareholder, including UniCredit, but has not yet received an offer. In its view, the unfinished European banking union makes it "very difficult" to take advantage of cross-border bank mergers." However, is currently in an (unspoken defensive battle) against a possible UniCredit takeover, as is often said among traders and/or investors. But concrete statements from those involved have not (yet) been confirmed in public regarding this. Despite this, those responsible at UniCredit also recently spoke out. At a non-public event at Bank of America, CEO Andrea Orcel also said last week that "we have until mid-March to optimize the offer to its competitor Banco BPM in Italy." It is unlikely that UniCredit will carry out two takeovers at the same time. Therefore, it remains exciting with regard to - that a takeover offer will probably be higher than the current price action. Be that as it may, Orcel apparently doesn't want to decide until next year 2025 whether he will actually improve the offer from his own Italian compatriots, Banco BPM, or whether he will once again focus on our German Commerzbank.

“Choose your habits well. Habit is probably the most powerful tool in your brain’s toolbox.”
Ray Dalio

€16.965 : 2024/10/07 - Annual High 2024
€15.825 : 2024/05/22 - May 2024 High
€15.660 : 2024/07/23 - July 2024 High
€15.120 : 2024/12/10 - last price action
€15.015 : 2024/11/22 - Bearish GAP Upper Line
€14.620 : 2024/11/25 - Bearish GAP Under Line
€14.060 : 2024/09/11 - Bullish GAP Upper Line
If you look at the price action for the year 2024 so far, you immediately notice, at least to me, the two highs from May 2024 and/or June 2024. Which is why I wrote this long CBK 4XSetUp the way I wrote it on Monday, November 16th, 2024. after the share started the trading day with a bullish GAP on the previous Wednesday, September 11th, 2024.

What happened?
shares rose sharply on Wednesday morning, September 11, 2001, after it was announced that Italian bank UniCredit had acquired a 4.5% stake in the Frankfurt-based credit institution. The deal, which involves the acquisition of 53.1 million shares from the German state, represents a significant step in Berlin's gradual exit from its long-standing stake in . As of 10:00 a.m. London time, the price action of the shares of the had risen +17.5%, which reflected investor optimism about the deal. Berlin's first step towards exiting was thus sealed - which then prompted me to formulate this long CBK 4XSetUp. Because our German federal government also confirmed, on the day in question, that it had sold a 4.5% tranche of its 16.49% stake in to UniCredit for around 702 million euros ($775 million). This sale reduced the state's share to 12% - nevertheless, our German federal government still remains the largest shareholder in Germany's second largest bank listed on the stock exchange. As a reminder, the state first invested in Commerzbank during the 2008 financial crisis and injected 18.2 billion euros to stabilize the stumbling bank. Since then, has already repaid around 13.15 billion euros from this rescue operation. "Where UniCredit-Commerzbank is now, from 4 angles" is a good, concise article that provides a good, detailed overview, if you want to know about this scenario.

That's why I placed our stop price for this long CBK 4XSetUp the way I placed it. Because what is currently crucial is the small bearish GAP from November 2024. Because it also reflects that traders and/or investors may once again come to the mathematical and sometimes also semantic conclusion that a takeover of by Unicredit would lead to this price action might not be worth it after all. Which is why today's trading day was a very good glimmer of hope - because for the first time again the share not only opened above the small bearish GAP, much more also only the price action was about it and closed above it with +1.76%. From this pov (point of view), the high from July 2024 with €15.660 and/or May 2024 with €15.660 are the first targets for us optimistic bulls. While bears could, for better or worse, recapture the small bearish GAP again, even €125.015 and/or €14.620, and then send the price action back to the intraday low of September 11, 2024 until €14.060. When the partial sale briefly described above was published to our German federal government.

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€20.000 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
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€15.120 : 2024/12/10 - last price action
€15.595 : 2024/09/16 - Entry Price
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€13.500 : 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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With best wishes
and with good intentions!
Aaron

“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.

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