Cocoa FuturesLong
Cocoa market repeatedly bottoms in July
Updated
The picture below highlights major swing bottoms that all occured in July.
Years 2020 and 2021 clearly offered a phenomenal buying opportunity for long positions. Further back, in 2019, a major swing bottom has been locked in in August. In 2018, we got minor swing bottom in August as well, but the price came slightly below the level in October. That year, the market was greatly disrupted by a major bull run from January 2018 that continued throughout the first half of the year.
Anyways, halfway through July, we were given a bottom that is holding to this day. It would be the third rally starting at this price level, but something is different - the price is consolidating instead of rallying.
I interpret this consolidation as a way to get in at slightly lower price when the stop-loss level has already been determined. I don't think the price could be manipulated only to get Long speculaters out of the position - not this much.
Another possibility is that other agricultural commodities have overshadowed Cocoa, but I think the increasing prices will make Cocoa markets soar just as much as Wheat. It is mostly grown in countries that will be last to afford now expensive fertilizers.
Years 2020 and 2021 clearly offered a phenomenal buying opportunity for long positions. Further back, in 2019, a major swing bottom has been locked in in August. In 2018, we got minor swing bottom in August as well, but the price came slightly below the level in October. That year, the market was greatly disrupted by a major bull run from January 2018 that continued throughout the first half of the year.
Anyways, halfway through July, we were given a bottom that is holding to this day. It would be the third rally starting at this price level, but something is different - the price is consolidating instead of rallying.
I interpret this consolidation as a way to get in at slightly lower price when the stop-loss level has already been determined. I don't think the price could be manipulated only to get Long speculaters out of the position - not this much.
Another possibility is that other agricultural commodities have overshadowed Cocoa, but I think the increasing prices will make Cocoa markets soar just as much as Wheat. It is mostly grown in countries that will be last to afford now expensive fertilizers.
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