Uranium - Light at the end of the tunnel?
Updated
I don´t think there is a sector that is more hated than uranium. Everything looks very bleak. This is a true contrarian bet.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
I`m using Cameco as a proxy for the uranium market.
As you can see in the chart, this might be the first time in the last 5 years that the uranium market is going to make a higher yearly low.
The entry provides a great R/R as one can set SL right below the recent lows or below 2016 lows.
If there was anyone left holding long it seems they capitulated on friday, when Cameco announced its third quarter loss.
I plan to hold this stock among other uranium companies multiple years, as long as the general markets don´t collapse or there is another Fukushima like event.
Company related worries:
- Tax dispute with the Canada Revenue Agency, billions of dollars at stake, decision is expected within the next 18 months
- Dispute with TEPCO, which recently terminated massive supply deal, the case is expected to be heard in 2019
- Cameco stopped selling into the spot market, most of its contract portfolio will expire in 2021, if spot prices don´t rise until then, Cameco would likely loose this Game of Chicken with power companies
The key to me is this: Before Fukushima utilities bought uranium 5-10 years in advance, now they are buying 2-3 years in advance. This is understandable given the uncertainty around the future of nuclear power and current oversupply. It left the market with little buyers and low volume transactions determining the price, but also hundred millions of pounds of uranium that aren't currently covered by supply contracts. (800 million pounds between now and 2026 according to Cameco) One can easily see what could happen if these power companies were forced to cover their contracts into rising prices.
-> In the end it will come down to whose projections of future global nuclear power capacity prove correct.
Outside of some black swan event that crushes the supply side, i think this market will come back to life as it died, through Japan.
Five reactors have restarted to date, a further 21 reactors are in the process of restart approval.
With Abe winning the election this seems only a matter of time.
My first "target" for the market would be to not make a lower low than in 2016. Ideally stay above recent lows.
In 2018-2020 I want to see uranium prices start to rise slowly.
Longterm I´m looking for a price of 60$ per pound.
Note
This is a "last man standing contest". Almost as bad as it gets. Either prices rise or miners will continue to shut mines and supply will vanish. Closing and reopening mines isn`t as simple as using a light switch.Note
Potential Double Bottom, about to tackle weekly downtrend.
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