CHF JPY - FUNDAMENTAL ANALYSIS
Adam Cole, Chief Currency Strategist at RBC Capital Markets, has highlighted recent policy shifts from the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the persistent threat of imported inflation, and increasing levels of verbal intervention in Japan.
"While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have let down some investors with a 25bp rate hike last week when many were hoping for a 50bp increase, it made its intentions clear: it's ready to buy CHF to provide suitable monetary conditions," says Cole.
Indeed, despite a somewhat disappointing rate hike, the SNB's commitment to provide appropriate monetary conditions and willingness to buy CHF indicate a robust approach to currency management.
The SNB's current focus on selling foreign currency further substantiates this view.
Furthermore, the Swiss central bank's leadership recognises the benefits of CHF appreciation in the current economic climate.
SNB Chair Jordan noted that the strong CHF has effectively acted as a shield against imported inflation, an increasingly prevalent issue globally.
"SNB Chair Jordan revealed over the weekend that from the present perspective, monetary policy might not be tight enough to anchor price stability. He also noted that CHF appreciation has shielded Switzerland from imported inflation," Cole adds.
In Japan, meanwhile, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Despite the increasing verbal interventions from officials, the strategists at RBC believe there is potential in shorting JPY at current levels.
"In Japan, officials are ratcheting up their verbal interventions. Despite this, and the rising risk of intervention, RBC sees potential in shorting JPY at current levels," says Cole.
The pullback in USD/JPY from Friday's highs does leave some room for maneuver. This environment, coupled with the SNB's policy stance and Switzerland's inflationary shield, has led RBC to take a bullish position on the CHF/JPY pair.
As the markets continue to evolve in response to inflation, interest rate adjustments, and economic policy decisions, the perspective offered by strategists like Cole is crucial.
"While the Swiss National Bank (SNB) may have let down some investors with a 25bp rate hike last week when many were hoping for a 50bp increase, it made its intentions clear: it's ready to buy CHF to provide suitable monetary conditions," says Cole.
Indeed, despite a somewhat disappointing rate hike, the SNB's commitment to provide appropriate monetary conditions and willingness to buy CHF indicate a robust approach to currency management.
The SNB's current focus on selling foreign currency further substantiates this view.
Furthermore, the Swiss central bank's leadership recognises the benefits of CHF appreciation in the current economic climate.
SNB Chair Jordan noted that the strong CHF has effectively acted as a shield against imported inflation, an increasingly prevalent issue globally.
"SNB Chair Jordan revealed over the weekend that from the present perspective, monetary policy might not be tight enough to anchor price stability. He also noted that CHF appreciation has shielded Switzerland from imported inflation," Cole adds.
In Japan, meanwhile, the situation is a bit more nuanced. Despite the increasing verbal interventions from officials, the strategists at RBC believe there is potential in shorting JPY at current levels.
"In Japan, officials are ratcheting up their verbal interventions. Despite this, and the rising risk of intervention, RBC sees potential in shorting JPY at current levels," says Cole.
The pullback in USD/JPY from Friday's highs does leave some room for maneuver. This environment, coupled with the SNB's policy stance and Switzerland's inflationary shield, has led RBC to take a bullish position on the CHF/JPY pair.
As the markets continue to evolve in response to inflation, interest rate adjustments, and economic policy decisions, the perspective offered by strategists like Cole is crucial.
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