OIL LIKELY TO TRADE RANGEBOUND
WTI oil currently trades in the upper part of lateral quarterly (66-day) channel, that is above the quarterly mean (now at 56) and below the 1st standard deviation from that mean (now at 62).
From the looks of it, WTI oil has a high chance of staying within current range (or at least close to it). Lets step back take a broader view of situation with oil markets.
Late 2014 plunge in oil prices resembled the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the price first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
Current situation in oil is different - the late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Additionally, there is no larger crisis on global markets at the moment.
Thus oil prices now have more probability to trade range-bound for extended periods of time (close to the 20-year moving average, now at 54.3), until the situation on global oil market is sorted out.
From the looks of it, WTI oil has a high chance of staying within current range (or at least close to it). Lets step back take a broader view of situation with oil markets.
Late 2014 plunge in oil prices resembled the financial crisis of 2008-2009, when the price first fell right onto its 20-year moving average (then at 34 dollars) and then bounced back up relatively fast, when the overall situation on global markets normalized.
Current situation in oil is different - the late 2014 fall was triggered by internal factors of oil market, such as supply/demand balance and competition among key oil producers. Additionally, there is no larger crisis on global markets at the moment.
Thus oil prices now have more probability to trade range-bound for extended periods of time (close to the 20-year moving average, now at 54.3), until the situation on global oil market is sorted out.
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.