2023 tradingdesk for OIL

Updated

From now i will have one main idea, and all the ideas as we reach cycle targets for the year will be updated in the thread.

I dont trade short term, keep in mind my ideas are longer term, and its boring.
We wait for the cycles to bottom and we wait once in the trade for the trade to mature.

Fallow, like so you dont miss the updates.

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Update march until april:

Current cyclemodel shows oil up until end of march.

On the weekly chart we are approching the 21MA, often the case when markets are trending.

On the daily chart we see the price at the 21 MA, we expect the price to break the trendline and go higher in march, until end of march.

The way i trade this is to find longer term cycle bottoms and buy oil stocks or indices, since they are leveraged to higher oil prices.
I have bought symbol TPL (Tethys Petroleum Limited, TSXV) it pays big dividens, and have alot of oil well coming online, i am buying under 0.85

This is our idea for March-April. Will update again for April-June, once this plays out.

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The last chart had the weekly gold in it, this is the right one. March-April forcast is stil valid.

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So far everything is going as expected, we fallow the plan.

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Intresting.
On teh daily we did break trough the 21MA but got a reaction after fed chair powell was hawkish. Price is testing the 21 MA again. We need price to rally again, to many days below and we need to change our cycle model.

On the weekly we tested the the 21 weekly MA and got rejected. Need to break the 21 weekly MA, to confirm our bullish case until june.

Energy has bee wierd, so much goverment controll. Historicaly goverment controlls is short term solution, but not long term. If the dollar price is high and the oil price is high, other countries usally will cut back on consumption.

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Weekly march-april update:

Our call was a test and a breakout of the daily and weekly 21MA.
It tested the daily 21MA braked out but now restested it again.
Weekly it tested and got rejected by the 21 MA. We would have liked a breakout already, but cycle model stil show oil strength until the end of march.

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Oil is not fallowing our cycle model. We stil keep our oil stocks it pays dividend and will do good later this year. Price is in a tight range.

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Will have to recalibrate my cycles based on new price action.
My feelings is that there are alot of pice controlls going on in energy based on the war with russia. This migh be a factor the cycles dont consider. New forcast will come in end of march. I am still keeping my shares in the oil stocks that i bough, it will do well long term.

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Cycles showed a break out, but price was not reacting and we took notice.
Cycles got messed up because of the banking crises, as people belive in lower demand for oil. A good low will form soon for a longer term bottom and a upmove.

We need to respect the downside also, if price dont react to forecast we need to be more deffensive.

Price is stretchd far below the 21 weekly and daily avrage and must catch up.
RSI is showing divergences and oversold conditions. Its setting the stage for a longer term low.

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Upate April-May:

Current cyclcle model show we are inn the process of finding a low.
price is expected to rally into May. But w because of the war situaion and manipulation of prices, we belive the strength off rallies will not be that great.
We expect a choppy upmove. Cycles are up until July.

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This is the monthly, chart i dont like the price action.
My condition for a long is to see the RSI depressed and the ocilator depressed and turning. Also i dont like the war and the politics behind keeping price low to punish russia. Then you got the bank crises, mybe this needs to play out and markets need to be convinced there wont be a economic slowdown.

TradingIsNotGambling

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