Our Long trade idea has already reached its target at 5921.75 in ES futures.
If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week:
Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however, we want to remind traders that these example trade ideas are for educational purposes, they are not a recommendation. Stops are never meant to dictate exact stop prices. Trader’s should place their stops according to their own risk management plan whether that be a mix of fixed dollar amount and market structure or filtering down to execution time frames to place stops per market generated information and structure.
Today’s Trade Idea: WTI Crude Oil
We will analyze the Long trade idea in WTI Crude Oil, providing both context and setup.
Fundamental Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
Following the reciprocal tariff announcements, WTI Crude Oil fell to its lowest level of 54.48, a price last seen in 2023.
While equity markets have recovered, crude oil remains subdued—widely attributed to concerns over OPEC+ overproduction.
However, as we’ve previously explained, this interpretation is incorrect. The OPEC+ production increases were planned as early as December 2024, and the rollback of voluntary cuts is primarily aimed at meeting domestic demand within OPEC+ countries.
This uptick in consumption also coincides with seasonal demand from summer and the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, with the reversal of China’s escalatory tariffs and newly signed deals in the Middle East, many analysts have revised their GDP and recession forecasts upward.
We believe this improved economic outlook is yet to be priced in by the oil markets.
Technical Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
From a technical standpoint, there is a significant resistance zone and key Low Volume Node (LVN) stacked just above the 2025 mCVAL and Q2 2025 mCVAH. The March 2025 Low also sits just above this cluster.
Our analysis projects a potential move from these levels up to the next major area of stacked levels:
• AVWAP from 2025 High
• Yearly 2025 VWAP
• 2025 Mid-Range
This sets the stage for a potential long opportunity in WTI Crude Oil as markets begin to price in shifting fundamentals and technical conditions align.
Key Levels:
• 2025 mCVAL: 63.38
• Q2 2025 mCVAH: 63.21
• AVWAP from 2025 Hi: 66.70
• Yearly 2025 VWAP: 67.44
• 2025- Mid Range: 66.52
Example Long Trade Idea: Probing Liquidity
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 63.50
• Stop: 62.90
• Target 1: 64.37
• Target 2: 66.70
• Risk: 120 ticks
• Reward: 407 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4R
Important Notes:
• Note that DOE inventories numbers are scheduled today at 10.30 am ET. Watch your risk amid volatility caused by this economic release.
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• The trade idea considers 2 contracts to calculate risk and reward.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
CL1!
If you missed it, here’s a link to our article from the start of the week:
Note that, our entry was at 5861, while our stop was at 5837 in the example trade idea. The maximum low price was 5835.75 during Monday’s overnight session. Our stops could have been filled given this, however, we want to remind traders that these example trade ideas are for educational purposes, they are not a recommendation. Stops are never meant to dictate exact stop prices. Trader’s should place their stops according to their own risk management plan whether that be a mix of fixed dollar amount and market structure or filtering down to execution time frames to place stops per market generated information and structure.
Today’s Trade Idea: WTI Crude Oil
We will analyze the Long trade idea in WTI Crude Oil, providing both context and setup.
Fundamental Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
Following the reciprocal tariff announcements, WTI Crude Oil fell to its lowest level of 54.48, a price last seen in 2023.
While equity markets have recovered, crude oil remains subdued—widely attributed to concerns over OPEC+ overproduction.
However, as we’ve previously explained, this interpretation is incorrect. The OPEC+ production increases were planned as early as December 2024, and the rollback of voluntary cuts is primarily aimed at meeting domestic demand within OPEC+ countries.
This uptick in consumption also coincides with seasonal demand from summer and the Hajj pilgrimage in Saudi Arabia.
Additionally, with the reversal of China’s escalatory tariffs and newly signed deals in the Middle East, many analysts have revised their GDP and recession forecasts upward.
We believe this improved economic outlook is yet to be priced in by the oil markets.
Technical Analysis Supporting Our Scenario:
From a technical standpoint, there is a significant resistance zone and key Low Volume Node (LVN) stacked just above the 2025 mCVAL and Q2 2025 mCVAH. The March 2025 Low also sits just above this cluster.
Our analysis projects a potential move from these levels up to the next major area of stacked levels:
• AVWAP from 2025 High
• Yearly 2025 VWAP
• 2025 Mid-Range
This sets the stage for a potential long opportunity in WTI Crude Oil as markets begin to price in shifting fundamentals and technical conditions align.
Key Levels:
• 2025 mCVAL: 63.38
• Q2 2025 mCVAH: 63.21
• AVWAP from 2025 Hi: 66.70
• Yearly 2025 VWAP: 67.44
• 2025- Mid Range: 66.52
Example Long Trade Idea: Probing Liquidity
Time frame: 1 hour or 30 mins
• Entry: 63.50
• Stop: 62.90
• Target 1: 64.37
• Target 2: 66.70
• Risk: 120 ticks
• Reward: 407 ticks
• Risk/Reward Ratio: 3.4R
Important Notes:
• Note that DOE inventories numbers are scheduled today at 10.30 am ET. Watch your risk amid volatility caused by this economic release.
• These are example trade ideas and not financial advice or recommendations.
• The trade idea considers 2 contracts to calculate risk and reward.
• Traders should conduct independent analysis and ensure proper risk management.
• Stop-loss orders are not guaranteed; slippage may occur, resulting in losses beyond predefined levels.
• AVWAP levels are accurate at the time of posting, they may vary as indicator further calculates prices with new volume and price information.
Glossary Index for all technical terms used:
VAL: Value Area Low
VAH: Value Area High
VP: Volume Profile
AVP: Anchored Volume Profile
C: Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
mC: micro-Composite (prefix before VAL, VAH, VPOC, VP, AVP)
AVWAP: Anchored Volume Weighted Average Price
CL1! 
EdgeClear
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
P: 773.832.8320 | TF: 844-TRADE20
Derivatives trading involves a substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The views expressed are opinions, not financial advice.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.