Mar-Apr, 2023 Market Focus

Updated

This is the March-April, 2023 playbook, focused on four (4) markets - so far -, highlighting potentially important plays, including a longer-term position (weekly/monthly time frame).
(One should never maintain more than a maximum of three (3) positions, simultaneously, as there is no possible justification for trading more than 3 instruments at the same time! - Unless the trading plan is unclear - lack of conviction! - or when rolling between markets. Normally, it is justified to maintain a
1) FX position - for currency differentials;
2) Commodity/raw material/index play; and finally,
3) a well established, Long-term Position.
Anything more and one ought to question immediately the validity, the clarity or the lack of conviction in those extra instances. - Diversification is best left for the investment crowd, since Traders have zero (0) use for it!)

Of course, things change and ultimately anything can happen in trading. This is just the present outlook.

Trade active

Buy it up! - Long

And off to the races ...

Note

GBP/USD close-up

Note

Buy it up!

Long

Note

(To dee the size and significance of the Long Position here, an educated guess;
This being the Final Turn here, one should not encounter these prices again as this pair pushes higher up, up and away. - See you in the 600s. :-)
There are a number of powerful, fundamental - and irreversible! - forces driving this pair higher than a just a simple interest rate differential! (Which, in itself, would be a negative. That list is as long as it is impressive, and lethal for a country and its economy.
E.g., "Just set it (Long) and forget it!"

Trade active

Loaded up LONG here ...

... on the Futures with Tight Stops!

Trade active

A second chance to enter LONG here.

Note

(Almost forgot) Here is the rest

Trade active

Loading heavily off of that Pin Bar, here;

LONG

Note

This looks like its turning UP, once again;

Adding to those LONGs agressively.

Note

Fully loaded here!!

LONG

Note

This is a likely scenario here;

Note

Loaded up (added to those LONGs) on that brekout here - LONG

Don't chase, though! There should be a pull back, soon.

Note

CL - (very!!) LONG

This is sitting at the bottom of that $85-$95 range, having already formed a huge accumulation zone. This is the place to load, LONG! (I've managed to pick up 220x June 95C, last week.)
Resistance zones are at $80 and $85, after which it's a strait shot to $95.

Note

This ought to be going nowhere but up!

The next 3.5% should be clear sailing.

Note

Loading, loading, ...

... loading. UP and away, we're going!

Note

Buy it up! - LONG

Note

This one is getting there, nicely :-)

This is only the first leg up!
(Holding a massively over sized position here. May be it's time to pare back a little?! ... Probably.)

Trade closed: target reached

FLAT - for now.
This is only the first (of many!!) leg up!
(However, this one made the year, already. :-)

Note

Buy it up! - LONG

Trade active

SHORT

Trade active

Loading, loading, loading ... Something fierce! LONG

Trade active

Buy it up! - LONG
(Bought an awful lot of ESJ 4200 Calls, at the bottom, yesterday.)

Note

Look to go Short soon, but wait for it!!
So far, this was the best trade of the year. (Although, I played it in the S&P500. Bought 200x of the ESJ 4200C twice, both times @3.75 and dumped them all just now - perhaps a tad too early - @7.75, for a net profit of +$87,250, in 24 hrs!.) I've also pushed +12x NQ off of that 11838 stop hunt until I dumped it all yesterday off of the other, 13000.00 stop hunt.)
March didn't disappoint, so far, running on all cylinders, up +31.28%, for the month. :-)

Note

Will be Buying it up - LONG, hopefully off of that upcoming Stop Hunt, like one is suffocating and CAD is the oxygen.
BUT, wait for a reversal!!

Note

There is an awful lot hanging over this;

SHORT

Note

This broke out (2 days ago) ...

... and so, it continues to be highly tradeable!! (Just follow the arrows.)
By the end of May the outcome of the purported Ukrainian "Spring offensive" should be quite visible, as well (unlikely to be beneficial for the US & Allies), making for a decisive, final (secondary) top in global equities.

Trade active

LONG - for now.

Note

Talk about right on schedule! :-)

Get ready to pare back on those Longs, for now.

Nemo_Confidat

Also on:

Related publications

Disclaimer

The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.