🛢 CRUDE – 18th week of the base cycle (28 weeks). We are in the 2nd phase, clearly bearish. On March 23 I wrote:
"The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31."
👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31.
⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.
"The current base cycle cannot yet be called bearish as it hasn’t broken the starting point. The next key extreme forecasts for crude are March 27 and 31."
👉 Now this base cycle can be considered bearish. Even though the short position from March 27 was stopped out with a planned loss, the extreme forecast of March 31 provided an opportunity to open a new short position. This is a rare case of two closely spaced extreme forecasts triggering back-to-back. These forecasts were issued specifically for crude at the beginning of the year as a window from March 28–31.
⚠️ It looks like my bearish forecast is being confirmed, as outlined in the summer 2024 crude post. The Jupiter–Uranus conjunction is working precisely. All of this resembles the 2010–2014 setup. The previous 4-year crude cycle began in spring 2020 and went sideways from fall 2022. It seems a new 4-year cycle has already started, and its beginning is very weak — much like fall 2012. There’s a high probability this will be a bearish 4-year cycle ending closer to 2028. The next universal extreme forecast is on April 7. The next crude-specific extreme forecast is on May 5.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.