CRUDE OIL: long-term projection (triangle forming?)
When looking at the crude oil market, one thing that seems quite evident (in Elliottwave perspective) is that the rally from the FEB 2016 lows are NOT impulsive. The bounce back clearly has been choppy and no 5 wave impulse is clear.
With that in mind, how are we to make sense of the MACRO direction for OIL?
My analysis leads me to view this large and extensive sideways movement as a potential triangle forming in CRUDE OIL (with the (b) wave piercing below the (a) wave).
This leads me to believe that oil is likely to trade higher in the coming months (forming the (c) wave), but failing to take out the highs from APRIL 2011.
If this analysis is correct, oil should be in this trading range for quite a few years before finally collapsing to the lows in the latter part of the next decade.
Looking at this from a MACROECONOMIC perspective, a range-bound oil price followed by a collapse in price over 10 years is consistent with improved energy efficiencies developing and alternative technologies being created that necessitate in lower demand & higher supplies.
Comments appreciated.
With that in mind, how are we to make sense of the MACRO direction for OIL?
My analysis leads me to view this large and extensive sideways movement as a potential triangle forming in CRUDE OIL (with the (b) wave piercing below the (a) wave).
This leads me to believe that oil is likely to trade higher in the coming months (forming the (c) wave), but failing to take out the highs from APRIL 2011.
If this analysis is correct, oil should be in this trading range for quite a few years before finally collapsing to the lows in the latter part of the next decade.
Looking at this from a MACROECONOMIC perspective, a range-bound oil price followed by a collapse in price over 10 years is consistent with improved energy efficiencies developing and alternative technologies being created that necessitate in lower demand & higher supplies.
Comments appreciated.
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