Crude Oil Futures Trade In a Narrow Range

Technical Momentum Weakens

Crude Oil futures have stalled after rising in 2024 after trading at the upper price band of 88/barrel and lower price band of 84/barrel. The technical perspective shows momentum studies correcting from overbought territories, with the 9-day moving average stalling above 18-day. DMI + is narrowing in on DMI -, indicating that the market is consolidating, while the Average True Range firms to $1.66 per day.

EIA Inventories Rise

EIA Inventory tightness has reversed recently, indicating a more relaxed supply picture. Current EIA inventories are 457 million barrels, compared to the five-year average of 466 million barrels for this period.

Cushing stocks in the Mid-West have also narrowed recently, showing 33 million barrels in inventory versus a five-year average of 40 million barrels.

Recent API Data has shown another build of 4 million barrels.

An Expanding Economic Tailwind

The U.S. economy continues to expand in 2024, driven by the high probability of a soft landing, fueling investor sentiment. Geopolitical Tension also plays a wildcard with the possibility of a widening Middle-Eastern conflict.

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*Trade ideas cited above are for illustration only, as an integral part of a case study to demonstrate the fundamental concepts in risk management under the market scenarios being discussed. They shall not be construed as investment recommendations or advice. Nor are they used to promote any specific products, or services.

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