Three Simple Technical Narratives Driving Crude Oil
Please note that the chart above is the continuous front-month Crude, and we are referencing the August contract below.
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11
August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61****
Pivot: 78.11
Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
Crude Oil (August)
Last week’s close: Settled 78.26, up 0.11
August WTI Crude Oil futures are front month and price action has consolidated terrifically out above the 21-day moving average since last Monday’s strong session. However, as this week unfolds, there are two stories overhead. First, price action has not traded above the 54-day moving average since breaking below it on May 1st, and this comes in at 79.34. Second, there is unfinished gap settlement resistance from the April 30th monthly settle aligning to create rare major four-star resistance with a .618 retracement. While the 54-dma is resistance, one may view the gap settlement as unfinished business and a bullseye that must be tested.
Bias: Neutral/Bullish
Resistance: 78.85-78.94***, 80.37-80.61****
Pivot: 78.11
Support: 77.33-77.42***, 75.46-75.75***
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