Long-term/dividend/value holding idea in high inflation economy
Updated
My take:
Up after ER, PT $261. That will be a good exiting point if need to adjust a portfolio %.
Then if nothing or bad events happen, it will fall back to $245 around 4 weeks after topping PT. May fall further to if ER is not optimal or other economic events (very likely, such as interest rate hike). Then that will be a good chance to make up % in a portfolio if oversold at the previous exiting point.
Short-term resistance at $240 may come into play before ER due to increasing vol and MACD trend deviation. But generally, we are still halfway to the next top.
The long-term overview/PT remains the same after the rate hike in my opinion due to demand/supply and the early player in H2 energy play.
Overall, it's a bullish play for long-term/dividend holding.
Up after ER, PT $261. That will be a good exiting point if need to adjust a portfolio %.
Then if nothing or bad events happen, it will fall back to $245 around 4 weeks after topping PT. May fall further to if ER is not optimal or other economic events (very likely, such as interest rate hike). Then that will be a good chance to make up % in a portfolio if oversold at the previous exiting point.
Short-term resistance at $240 may come into play before ER due to increasing vol and MACD trend deviation. But generally, we are still halfway to the next top.
The long-term overview/PT remains the same after the rate hike in my opinion due to demand/supply and the early player in H2 energy play.
Overall, it's a bullish play for long-term/dividend holding.
Note
The trend was broken due to a market sell-off. We are going to retest $220, and we may see $213 again. I actually like the current setup because the future drop after ER might not be so dramatic now. If we start to enter at the current level and average down every $10 down until we see it is stabilized, our average might be $315 or lower. That means we entered at PE14, which will be a rather good entry point for a long-term position. Of course, that assumes the EPS stays around $15, which I think it's very probable. The long-term exit point does not change ($270).Note
It's interesting to see someone wants this company stock so badly. ER miss shouldn't bother it for too long although it did at some level. We just hit the support so should I enter a position here? I'd say judging from the vol it does look like a bottom. You can pretty much see large vol at every big drop. I expect it will break through the short-term resistance of $220 and continue after April.
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