Short

Daily 4XSetUps - $10000 Terrain Battle In COCOA Is In Full Swing

2025/02/14
Daily 4XSetUps - $10,000 Terrain Battle In COCOA Is In Full Swing
“historical all-time highs above $10000 for the 1st time in 2024 & 2025!
is the big cycle in historical context over? that's it? that's why bearish?”

The Dax let off some steam this Friday, February 14th, 2025, after its latest record hunt. At the end of Xetra trading, our leading German index fell by -0.44% to 22,513.42 points. The MDax for medium-sized companies only fell by -0.36% to 27,659.84 points. The Dax had marched ahead from record to record this week and climbed to just over 22,624 points the day before. The bull market was fueled by hopes of peace negotiations for Ukraine after the phone call between US President Donald Trump and Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin. On a weekly basis, the Dax recorded a gain of +3.2%. The increase since the beginning of the year is already an impressive +13%. The stock market here in Germany is rolling - so if you're not long (yet), wait and see. There will be worse days and weeks again? Then you can buy more! The German leading index is now considered to be a little too hot. And could correct significantly without endangering the longer-term upward trend. Europe's most important stock markets also fell on the last day of this week. In morning trading, the EuroStoxx 50 came within 2 points of its record high of 5,522 points, which was reached in 2000. However, in late business the leading Eurozone index lost some ground and closed with a loss of -0.13% at 5493.40 points. This still results in a weekly gain of more than +3%. Outside the euro area, the Swiss SMI SMI lost -0.84% to 12,839.87 points on Friday. The British FTSE 100 fell by -0.37% to 8732.46 points.

The focus this Friday, February 14, 2025, was on the Munich Security Conference, where the US government's new direction in the Ukraine conflict will be particularly in focus this weekend. US Vice President J.D. Vance gave a highly anticipated speech in the afternoon, but did not address the pressing security policy issues (e.g. efforts for peace in Ukraine, defense spending burden sharing) as expected. With the words "What pessimists had already expected for January 20th has now hit Europe almost three weeks late - I apologize for the bellicist choice of words: the new reality. Donald Trump and his government are no longer interested in the concerns of their old ally Europe.", the German monthly magazine CAPITAL wrote a worthwhile article about it on its homepage. With the headline [url=]"Europe wakes up in a new world". Of course - after the green transformation, especially here in Germany, which has only cost us consumers and taxpayers - as well as the green narratives that promise salvation, many are only now waking up geopolitically. While others exhale with relief. What sparked domestic inflation in the USA under the Biden/Harris administration under the name Green Deal - and also the war adventures of the previous governments under Obama and Bush in foreign policy, such as in Syria, fall on our feet - I emphasize at this point on our (EU, NATO, what we call the so-called West). And that's a good thing - even if many people don't like it. Because the end of every history is also the beginning of a new one. "JD Vance's fiery speech at the Munich Security Conference - part of his multi-day debut on the world stage as U.S. vice president - dominated the marathon high-level gabfest among hundreds of top foreign dignitaries and national security elites. No one is talking about anything else, said a senior Eastern European official.", Politico wrote about it today. In an article that is also more than worth reading. I personally hope that something good will come of it - and not just a change for the sake of change, but for the sake of it - in order to organize a better future with the consent of everyone involved. In which certainly not everyone gets what they want 100% - but at least with those who are less than 100%, as well as their counterparts, they then agree to it in a peaceful, civilized way.

“I learned that if you work hard and creatively, you can have just about anything you want, but not everything you want. Maturity is the ability to reject good alternatives in order to pursue even better ones.”
Ray Dalio

While on the one hand I am currently rather skeptical about the stock market due to the fundamental valuation, such as the mean reversion model "As of September 30, 2024, the S&P500 is currently trading 71% above its modern-era historical trend value, (about 2.0 standard deviations), indicating that the market is Strongly Overvalued", I think when it comes to commodities, we are currently experiencing the peak! Why? Look at the charts - it has been bullish parabolically since the beginning of 2022, right, because of the Ukraine conflict and/or green economic policy (which makes everything essential for life more expensive even because of green political ideology). Trump and the US Republicans are now at the levers of power in the USA - and they are already delivering in less than a month. Get out of the Green New Deal, promote oil production in the USA, and/or act as a peacemaker between Ukraine and Russia. If we look in the historical rear-view mirror from now and/or also into the future from today, we can assume that the green political wave - which brought us, in our so-called West, stagflation, i.e. economic downturn and inflation, including militaristic Keynesianism, is over - the bullish commodities price action era. Nevertheless, I run our UKOIL 4XSetUp alongside the short COCOA 4XSetUp - both with their respective target price and/or stop price. Because of course I can be wrong about the analysis and/or the corresponding bearish valuation. So think about it yourself - analyze, evaluate and then decide (long, short, nothing to do).

$10489 : 2024/06/13 - Bearish Gap Intraday Low
$10165 : 2024/06/14 - Bearish Gap Intraday High
$10189 : 2025/02/14 - last price action
$09824 : 2024/12/27 - 1st Low After All-Time High
$06424 : 2024/10/25 - 1st Leg Upper Trend
$06603 : 2024/11/06 - 2nd Leg Upper Trend
$ACTIVTRADES:COCOAH2025 has slightly more than doubled from $6424 on October 25, 2024 to as high as $12914 on December 18, 2024 - and that calls for a correction! Which is why I formulated this short COCOA 4XSetUp the way I formulated it. Because if you go back 3 years - at the beginning of 2022 - the price action has increased sixfold. Over 600% within 3 years? That's not good - let alone normal. Therefore we are waiting for the price action. Because the extended last upward trend, from $6424 on October 25th, 2024 & November 6th, 2024 at $6603, is currently just over $8000. Which still sounds like a lot - but if you take a step back and look at the historical perspective of day trading, then you quickly realize that the price action was simply too fast and sometimes too high. Especially in the last 3 years - in all commodities more or less. Therefore, it is currently important to concentrate on the bearish GAP from last year 2024. When the price action rose above $10000 for the first time - $10489 the daily low on June 13th, 2024 and/or the daily high on the following June 13th, 2024 with $10165. Because a price action below this confirms the hypothesis of a historic high. Let alone a price action below $9824 - the first significant low, on December 27th, 2024, after the historic all-time high, on December 18th, 2024, at $12914. Because that would be a bearish signal, at least in the short term, and also a confirmation that the bears have taken command of the terrain above $10,000 - and/or much more under $9,824. That's why this short COCOA 4XSetUp. And it would increase the probability that we would then continue to experience lower price action in $ACTIVTRADES:COCOAH2025 in the next weeks and/or months.

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$08000 : 2025/12/31 - Target Price
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$10189 : 2025/02/14 - last price action
$11342 : 2025/01/21 - Entry Price
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$12914 - 2025/12/31 - Stop Price
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Have a good time
- regardless of the price action!
Aaron

“daily 4XSetUps - …” is pure information material!
By trying to give you even more information about some trading capabilities to trade and/or invest in some securities. This post is not a call to action - it only provides information. You decide (not) to decide. Even if I am writing daily 4XSetUps with concrete entry prices, target prices and/or also stop prices! It is like it is - like I said; You decide to respond to the analysis I just formulated to buy, to sell, or to do nothing! More information about my approaches to investing in something specific or just trading it, or even just describing it, can be found in the daily "Another 48h - DXY ...! Analysis Post. Where I try to track the price action in DXY every day so that we learn something new daily.

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