COVID: WINNING OR LOSING THE WAR?
The chart shows cumulative cases in USA, GB and Germany.
Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more.
But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why?
Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture.
Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important.
It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How?
If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise.
If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero.
Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December.
Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation.
Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services.
Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron.
Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
Some don't like cumulative data. Case rates per day seem to matter more.
But in terms of understanding whether the war on COVID is being won, I say cumulative data is where the focus needs to be. Why?
Case rates per day or per week are the 'noise'. That rate will pick up fluctuations. Some people may get excited if there is a fall in rates over a few weeks. But short term rates do not give the big picture.
Cumulative figures over along period tell a different story. How they are interpreted is important. The actual figure at any one point is not that important.
It is the shape of the curve that matters more. How?
If a virus is dying out, one can expect there would be very little accumulation. We should see a clear flattening or perhaps only a very gentle rise.
If the virus died completely, the curve would flatten and remain flat because accumulation would be zero.
Of the big three GB (green) and USA(amber) have been taking on a sharper rise. It appears that the accumulation began around 1st December 2021 and that was realised near 25th December.
Obviously, Omicron was a new phase - piling on the accumulation.
Whilst the Omicron variant appears to have a lower case fatality rate than previous versions, what we're seeing in other data is how disruptive it is of health, other essential services, and transportation services.
Evolutionary theory will say that an organism mutates in the direction of an advantage that maximises its survival. Omicron has achieved that. It was not surprising. It's not in COVID's survival strategy, to become more 'killing' - simply because it needs more of its host to spread itself. What we don't need is a stronger big brother of Omicron.
Omicron (and Delta) are more serious risks to economies than death rates from infection.
FED balance sheet 42% of GDP @ 2020-01-26. Does money have value anymore? [Different perspective on the virus youtu.be/NjTdvALChwk ]
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