Our analysis over copper, the prices have experienced a significant upward trend, influenced by a combination of policy decisions, supply dynamics, and market speculation.
Current Price Levels:
London Metal Exchange (LME): Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per tonne, marking a five-month high.
New York Comex: Prices have exceeded $11,000 per tonne, reflecting a 27% increase since the beginning of the year.
Factors Driving the Price Increase:
U.S. Trade Policies and Tariff Speculations:
President Donald Trump's administration is considering imposing tariffs on copper imports to bolster domestic production. This has led to a surge in imports, with approximately 500,000 tons of copper en route to the U.S., significantly higher than the typical monthly import volume of 70,000 tons.
Supply Concerns:
The potential tariffs have prompted stockpiling, leading to concerns about a global supply shortage. This situation is exacerbated by low processing fees and an oversupply of smelting capacity in China, which pressures non-Chinese smelters.
Market Speculation:
Anticipation of tariffs and supply constraints has fueled speculative trading, contributing to the rapid price escalation.
Market Outlook:
While the current trajectory points towards sustained high prices, several factors could influence future movements:
Global Economic Conditions: A slowdown in major economies, particularly China, could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on prices.
Trade Policy Developments: The implementation and extent of U.S. tariffs on copper imports will significantly impact market dynamics.
Supply Chain Adjustments: Producers and consumers may seek alternative strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, such as sourcing from different regions or investing in domestic production capabilities.
Conclusion:
Copper prices are currently on an upward trajectory, driven by U.S. trade policy considerations, supply concerns, and market speculation. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and global economic indicators to navigate this volatile market effectively.
We would look for a further increase in the prices of Copper -
Entry: 5.19
Target: 5.50
SL: 4.70 - We would look this as a mid term opportunity which would give us the freedom to look for no stop loss / diverse overview of Risk Management, hence at the moment there is no indication of President Trump stoping with his tariffs plan, which can give a continues push to the prices of Copper.
Current Price Levels:
London Metal Exchange (LME): Copper prices have surpassed $10,000 per tonne, marking a five-month high.
New York Comex: Prices have exceeded $11,000 per tonne, reflecting a 27% increase since the beginning of the year.
Factors Driving the Price Increase:
U.S. Trade Policies and Tariff Speculations:
President Donald Trump's administration is considering imposing tariffs on copper imports to bolster domestic production. This has led to a surge in imports, with approximately 500,000 tons of copper en route to the U.S., significantly higher than the typical monthly import volume of 70,000 tons.
Supply Concerns:
The potential tariffs have prompted stockpiling, leading to concerns about a global supply shortage. This situation is exacerbated by low processing fees and an oversupply of smelting capacity in China, which pressures non-Chinese smelters.
Market Speculation:
Anticipation of tariffs and supply constraints has fueled speculative trading, contributing to the rapid price escalation.
Market Outlook:
While the current trajectory points towards sustained high prices, several factors could influence future movements:
Global Economic Conditions: A slowdown in major economies, particularly China, could dampen demand and exert downward pressure on prices.
Trade Policy Developments: The implementation and extent of U.S. tariffs on copper imports will significantly impact market dynamics.
Supply Chain Adjustments: Producers and consumers may seek alternative strategies to mitigate tariff impacts, such as sourcing from different regions or investing in domestic production capabilities.
Conclusion:
Copper prices are currently on an upward trajectory, driven by U.S. trade policy considerations, supply concerns, and market speculation. Stakeholders should closely monitor policy developments and global economic indicators to navigate this volatile market effectively.
We would look for a further increase in the prices of Copper -
Entry: 5.19
Target: 5.50
SL: 4.70 - We would look this as a mid term opportunity which would give us the freedom to look for no stop loss / diverse overview of Risk Management, hence at the moment there is no indication of President Trump stoping with his tariffs plan, which can give a continues push to the prices of Copper.
Join my Telegram community for Forex trading insights, real-time news, educational content and friendly support. Let's grow and succeed together! -
t.me/Capital55DG
t.me/Capital55DG
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Join my Telegram community for Forex trading insights, real-time news, educational content and friendly support. Let's grow and succeed together! -
t.me/Capital55DG
t.me/Capital55DG
Related publications
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.