### **1. Bearish Technical Indicators**
- **Rising Wedge Breakdown**: chart shows a rising wedge, a bearish reversal pattern. Price has already broken below the lower trendline, signaling potential downside momentum.
- **Bearish Divergence**:
- The **RSI** is making lower highs while the price made higher highs → Indicates weakening buying strength.
- The **MACD** also shows a bearish divergence, meaning momentum is slowing down.
- **Moving Average Rejection**: The price is testing short-term moving averages (red and blue lines). If it fails to reclaim them, more downside is likely.
### **2. Fundamental & News Factors Supporting a Sell**
- **Stronger U.S. Dollar**:
- If the **USD is rising**, cotton (which is priced in dollars) becomes more expensive for international buyers, leading to lower demand and falling prices.
- **Weak Demand from China**:
- China is a major cotton importer. If their economic data (like retail sales or industrial output) is weak, it signals lower demand for cotton, pushing prices lower.
- **Higher Cotton Inventories**:
- If recent USDA or global reports show higher-than-expected cotton supply, that adds to selling pressure.
- **Seasonal Pressure**:
- Cotton prices often decline after seasonal peaks, especially if new harvests increase supply.
### **Conclusion**
- **Technical Breakdown** (wedge break, bearish divergence) +
- **Fundamental Pressure** (stronger USD, weaker demand, high supply) → **Bearish Outlook**
If these factors continue, selling cotton could be a solid trade. Do you want to discuss potential targets or stop-loss levels?
**(Not Financial Advice: Do your own research before trading.)**
Note
Trade is ActiveNote
first target done change stop loss to break even :)
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.