Long

Updated 5 days ago

Long CR at 177.84 - sometimes you just gotta break the rules

I am on record more than once here saying that I don’t like trading stocks without long trading histories. I stand by that “rule” but on this occasion, I’m going to break it. That lovely uptrend is only part of the reason why.

has only been publicly traded since the spring of 2023. It has produced some of the best results in the entire spectrum of stocks I follow in that time, though. I won’t dig into all of it - I’ll just focus on the last 12 months. 16 buy signals, 15 wins and one (yesterday) incomplete. What is amazing is that 14 of the 15 before yesterday would have closed profitably in just 1 day…and the one that didn’t would have only taken 2 days.

The average gain for all of them is 1.59% (including the one from yesterday that is currently a “loser”). In case you’re scoring at home, that’s an annualized rate of return of just under 400%. Now I won’t make any promises here, we are dealing with a small sample size. Also, a couple of the trades right after it went public took quite a while to play out. One of those trades gained 13+%, though. But I don't break the rules for just any stock and this isn't a hypothetical buy - my money is on the line here.
I resisted temptation yesterday, but I just couldn’t today.

Per my usual strategy, I'll add at the close on any day it is still producing a buy signal and I will use FPC (first profitable close) to exit any lot on the day it closes at any profit.

As always - this is intended as "edutainment" and my perspective on what I am or would be doing, not a recommendation for you to buy or sell. Act accordingly and invest at your own risk. DYOR and only make investments that make good financial sense for you in your current situation. Especially given the short track record for this stock.

Trade active

Added 1 lot before the close for 176.15 - it's still giving a buy signal (day 3)

Current lots and prices:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 2 - 176.15

Note

This could either go to 3 lots or down to one, depending on how it swings in the next 10 min or so. If it's below 176.15 at the close, it's a buy, and a sell of just yesterday's lot if it is above that. I'll update after the close.

Note

Sold lot 2 at the close for 176.37 for a 1 day gain of 0.12%

Remaining lots

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Another example where taking a tiny profit ends up being much more profitable than it seemed at first. Being out of that one lot effectively "made" me 3.5ish % in one day by not having to make it back again after the stock lost that much today. I lost half as much money today as I would have if I was holding 2 lots instead of only one.

Now if I buy it back again today at the close, I won't be down >3.5%. The lot I buy today at the close will be a 0% return when I buy it and any increase will not only be profit instead of trying to get back to even, but it will be added to the .12% I pocketed on Friday. I'll say it again for those who didn't read my recent idea on - sometimes winning means not losing and today with is a perfect example of that. I'll update my position in CR after the close.

Note

Added 1 lot before the close for 176.15.
Current lots and prices:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 3 - 170.03

Combined, I'm down an average of 1.97% on the 2 lots I'm holding (includes profit from Friday's sale). Had I not sold on Friday, I'd be holding 3 lots down an average of 2.46% each and have 50% more money at risk if it declines further. Risk mitigation and leveling portfolio returns is a key element of what I'm trying to do here (in addition to making money, obviously).

Note

Added another lot at the close today at 169.35.

Currently held lots:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 3 - 170.03
Lot 4 - 169.35

Note

This stock has an ugly habit of late of selling off hard into the close. I ended up selling lots 3&4 less than a minute before the close for 170.28 for gains of +0.15% in 2 days and +0.55% in 1 day, respectively, after being up nearly 2% earlier in the day. I was tempted not to sell lot 3, but rules are rules and they've saved me quite a bit of money lately by getting me out for a tiny gain right before a big drop as it did earlier with this stock. It's frustrating to watch a stock go from being up 2% during the day to barely profitable at the close, but that's when having a very mechanical rule-based system works in my favor. It takes emotion out of the picture, and that is almost always a good thing when it comes to trading.

Remaining lot:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

I almost forgot to update this one today - I have too many ideas open here to keep track of...

Anyway, I added a lot just before the close for 166.085. It's designation is Lot 5 because lots 2-4 were sold at a profit already. My FPC rules saved me again on this one, though. I didn't want to sell lot 3 yesterday, but thanks to my rule following, I did. In effect, lot 5 is just buying back lot 3 a day later at a 2.3% discount while having already pocketed the .15% gain from yesterday's sale. That's the second time in a week I've essentially made > 2% on this stock by not still holding a lot because the FPC rules had me sell it for a small gain right before a big down day. Thanks FPC!!

Remaining lot:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085

Note

Bought lot 6 at the close today for 164.97. This was a very bad week for this stock and it could have been a lot worse for me, so I'll pretend I'm happy about how things turned out, all things considered. Next week is a new week, I guess. This one has some work to do next week for sure.

Lots still helo:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97

Note

This one is down 10 out of the last 13 days. Along with and , it's trying to ruin Christmas...OK maybe that's extreme but still. This is getting old quickly. On top of costing me money this is costing me opportunities in other stocks that would have paid off quickly and handsomely. That's the way it goes sometimes, but to say I'm annoyed by this pile of trades I'm holding is a massive understatement. Anyway, bought lot 7 before the close at 164.18. At least this one has been giving me chances to take profits once in a while...

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18

Note

Make that down 11 out of 14... added again at 159.67. Testing the bottom of the regression channel/trend line now. Maybe it'll bounce.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67

Note

Sorry for the late update - I was traveling yesterday and just too tired to update yesterday. Added lot 9 at the close yesterday for 153.37

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67
Lot 9 - 153.37

Note

Added again at 152.35

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67
Lot 9 - 153.37
Lot 10 - 152.35

Note

Sold Lot 10 at 152.90 just before the close. +0.36% in 1 trading day.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67
Lot 9 - 153.37

Note

Sold Lot 9 at the close for 155.88 - a +1.64% return in 4 trading days.

Remaining lots:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67

Note

Added at 150.99 at the close today.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67
Lot 10 - 150.99

Note

Sold lot 10 at the close today for 155.20 for a 2.8% gain in 1 trading day.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18
Lot 8 - 159.67

Note

Sold lot 8 a little before the close today for 162.68 for a 1.9% gain in 22 trading days.

Lots still held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 5 - 166.085
Lot 6 - 164.97
Lot 7 - 164.18

Note

I still hate trading near earnings, but it certainly helped me today. Sold lots 5, 6 and 7 for 175.78 at the close.

Lot 5: +5.84% in 29 trading days
Lot 6: +6.55% in 28 trading days
Lot 7: +7.07% in 27 trading days

Still holding Lot 1 at 177.84 but the entire position is now solidly profitable.

Note

Added 1 lot at 168.82 just before the close today. Still in the green on the position overall, though.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 8 - 168.82

Note

Sold lot 8 for 171.83 before the close. +1.78% in 1 trading day.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Added lot 9 at 162.07 at the close today.

Note

Added lot 10 at 161.50 at the close.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 9 - 162.07
Lot 10 - 161.50

Note

Sold lots 9 & 10 right before the close today for 163.04.

162.07 --> 163.04 = +0.60% in 2 trading days
161.50 --> 163.04 = +0.95% in 1 trading day

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Added another lot at 145.87 today. Just about everything was on sale today.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 2 - 145.87

Note

Sold lot 2 (which should really be lot 11) today at the close for 148.01 - a 1.47% gain in 4 trading days.

Remarkably, even though the original lot is still down almost 17%, this trade is solidly profitable with gains from closed trades now totaling almost twice as much as the loss on the original lot. So I now have the same exposure I originally did, the stock is down 16.8%% since the original purchase but I'm up 14.9% overall (that includes the loss on the still open lot 1).

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Added a lot at the close today at 140.54. Despite my terrible job here identifying what number lot these have been, I can verify this as lot #16, with 2-15 having been sold profitably.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 16 - 140.54

Note

Sold lot 16 at the close today for 140.89 - +0.25% in 1 trading day.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Added lot 17 at the close for 136.78.

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84
Lot 17 - 136.78

Note

Sold lot 17 at the close today for a 1 day gain of 2.65%

Lots held:

Lot 1 - 177.84

Note

Annoyed that I bought more yesterday (and sold today) and I can't take credit because I forgot to update this yesterday.

5 days ago

Trade closed: target reached

Closed the books on this trade today, selling the final lot at 178.18 for a +0.19% gain in 112 trading days. Glad to be out of this even though it turned out to be solidly profitable overall.

Below is a summary of the individual lot trades made.

+0.198% in 112 trading days
+2.65% in 1 trading day
+0.25% in 1 trading day
+1.47% in 4 trading days
+0.60% in 2 trading days
+0.95% in 1 trading day
+1.78% in 1 trading day
+0.12% in 1 trading day
+0.15% in 2 trading days
+0.55% in 1 trading day
+5.84% in 29 trading days
+6.55% in 28 trading days
+7.07% in 27 trading days
+1.89% in 22 trading days
+1.64% in 4 trading days
+0.36% in 1 trading day
+2.74% in 1 trading day

5 days ago

Note

Trade summary for my records

Wins: 17
Losses: 0

Avg gain per lot traded = +2.05%
Avg holding periods per lot = 14 trading days
Avg gain per lot per day held = +0.146%
Annualized RoR = .146% x 252 = +36.8%

redwingcoach

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