Weekly cotton market review 11/30/2020.
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TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON
Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed higher at $73.27 cents per pound.
ICE U.S. cotton stocks were down to 115929 bales. Total cash transactions were 47,906,262 bales this week compared to 3,957,734 bales last week, an increase of 8,328 bales this week compared to 5,5843 bales last week and 99,595 bales at the same time last year. Demand has been good, with China, Pakistan, and Turkey showing interest.
-In the Southeast last week, conditions were sunny to sometimes cloudy. The harvest accelerated at a good pace as the ideal weather conditions allowed the field work to progress without interruption. Growers continued to report lower yields and reduced quality in areas that received excessive moisture during the fall. In North Carolina, operations progressed more slowly, as fields remained too wet, with harvest 81% complete in Alabama, 73% complete in Georgia, 64% complete in North Carolina, 68% complete in South Carolina, and 49% complete in Virginia, which is below the five-year average.
-In the Delta, low rainfall amounts were reported in the North Delta. Operations were ending in good conditions, with the cotton harvest and fall work almost complete. Producers reported that they were generally satisfied with the yields and quality of the crop. Harvest was 99% complete in Arkansas, 91% complete in Missouri and Tennessee, 99% complete in Louisiana and 95% complete in Mississippi. Progress is finally close to the five-year average despite repeated hurricanes.
-In Texas, intermittent rains brought light precipitation in some areas. In the east, fields were ploughed and fertilizers were applied. Ginning activities continued in the coastal areas. In the West, more rainfall would have been beneficial, with 90% of the crop being harvested.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and hope for a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending that weakens the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES
The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially over, and the U.S. cotton harvest is also coming to an end. Rainfall in October was above normal, but lower than normal in November. Last week, the weather was sunny and slightly cloudy, with rainfall in the South Delta.
ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS
ICE stocks of full-season cotton were down to 1,519,929 bales from 1,183,94 bales the previous week. Stocks are above the five-year average for the same period.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS OF COTTON
Last week, ICE U.S. cotton futures closed higher at $73.27 cents per pound.
ICE U.S. cotton stocks were down to 115929 bales. Total cash transactions were 47,906,262 bales this week compared to 3,957,734 bales last week, an increase of 8,328 bales this week compared to 5,5843 bales last week and 99,595 bales at the same time last year. Demand has been good, with China, Pakistan, and Turkey showing interest.
-In the Southeast last week, conditions were sunny to sometimes cloudy. The harvest accelerated at a good pace as the ideal weather conditions allowed the field work to progress without interruption. Growers continued to report lower yields and reduced quality in areas that received excessive moisture during the fall. In North Carolina, operations progressed more slowly, as fields remained too wet, with harvest 81% complete in Alabama, 73% complete in Georgia, 64% complete in North Carolina, 68% complete in South Carolina, and 49% complete in Virginia, which is below the five-year average.
-In the Delta, low rainfall amounts were reported in the North Delta. Operations were ending in good conditions, with the cotton harvest and fall work almost complete. Producers reported that they were generally satisfied with the yields and quality of the crop. Harvest was 99% complete in Arkansas, 91% complete in Missouri and Tennessee, 99% complete in Louisiana and 95% complete in Mississippi. Progress is finally close to the five-year average despite repeated hurricanes.
-In Texas, intermittent rains brought light precipitation in some areas. In the east, fields were ploughed and fertilizers were applied. Ginning activities continued in the coastal areas. In the West, more rainfall would have been beneficial, with 90% of the crop being harvested.
Internationally, the prospect of Janet Yellen, former FED president, serving as Secretary of the Treasury in Joe Biden's future administration, and hope for a vaccine is fuelling markets. Many countries are preparing vaccination campaigns. Investors are also anticipating a massive stimulus package, with increased government spending that weakens the dollar. The dollar is still low and in a downward trend, the DXY closes at 91.790.
While waiting for a vaccine, the pandemic is not weakening. We have just passed 62 million cases worldwide, with more than 1.460 million deaths. The United States is the most affected country with more than 267,000 deaths and more than 13 million cases.
WEATHER IN THE UNITED STATES
The hurricane season in the North Atlantic is officially over, and the U.S. cotton harvest is also coming to an end. Rainfall in October was above normal, but lower than normal in November. Last week, the weather was sunny and slightly cloudy, with rainfall in the South Delta.
ICE US CERTIFIED COTTON STOCKS
ICE stocks of full-season cotton were down to 1,519,929 bales from 1,183,94 bales the previous week. Stocks are above the five-year average for the same period.
THE DOLLAR
The DXY index representing the Dollar against a range of foreign currencies closed last week down to 91.790, and the trend is still bearish. This is the first close below the 92 resistance level in almost 2 1/2 years. The presumed appointment of Janet Yellen as U.S. Treasury Secretary and Joe Biden's talk of a massive $3 trillion support package weighed on the Dollar. Forex traders are anticipating an increase in the money supply. In addition, U.S. unemployment figures, consumer confidence indexes and inflation figures disappointed last week.
A low Dollar is generally favorable to the Dollar-denominated commodities markets.
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