As a general rule, parabolic trends will tend to correct sharply, get back to the mean, spike out the mean/previous low and then return to the mean where either a new uptrend starts or it meanders along sideways for a while.
A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
A return to the mean in this case would be a massive percentage gain.
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Fair case to be made for this being a bit toppy now. If this turns into a false breakout that might be the end of the rally.
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Starting to very seriously consider the short on this now. I'm just cautious because ... well, the ATR is high.
I don't want to short and get spiked out in a final blow off.
But I certainly don't like the long side any more for a swing trade.
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I think 80 is a really good level for a potential top here but I don't think I can justify shorting something with this much vol while it's still 20% - 25% under the obvious resistance (Which I marked in on the original post at 8 as 100 - 110 and still think is the case). Conceptually, I think it's a short.
Strategically, I can't short it under 100. I'd prefer to miss the trade than take the gap risk.
If I was wrong 80 but right about a downtrend, I'd expect a 20% gap. Don't want that risk.
But certainly not an advocate for being long this any more.
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Hmm. 90 hit. Short is getting much more tempting.
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90 hit and it did it in that sketchy spike up move I was talking about being afraid of in the previous updates. Maybe going to pull the trigger on this.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
We may be inside of a crash event to 3000 in SPX.
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Read the full case with backlog of historic analysis/forecasts here: holeyprofitnewsletter.substack.com/p/the-case-for-3000-in-spx
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.