GOOD FUNDAMENTALS Rated buy by analysts with 20% upside Less volatile than the market (Beta 0.89) Sensible valuation (P/E 15.72x, P/BV 2.18x) Healthy growth (5 yr avg revenue +10%, ROE +14%)
TECHNICALLY IMPROVING Has been on a downtrend since the historical top of July 2015 Long and medium term technical pictures still negative Has retraced 53% of major move started in Dec 2011 Stock now appearing oversold (RSI<30) Has found a temporary floor at $69.30 post disappointing earnings This also corresponds to the 61.8% Fib retracement ($68.87)
FLOWS IMPROVING After earnings sell-off on Nov 8 the stock traded up significantly on 5.5x average volume
PLAIN VANILLA LONG STRATEGY Buy at the market Stop loss $69.30 Time horizon year-end
Target 1 $81.25 R/R 1.73x
Target 2 $86.00 R/R 2.82x
Trade active
CVS has handsomely breached our first upside target at 81.25, and effectively closed twice above it. The stock currently seems to be in a new breakout phase. Its behavior has been quite sound over the past couple of months:
1. Has taken its time to consolidate before consecutive breakouts; 2. Recently broken out above key 81.25 level; 3. Recent upside has been done with increasing volume; 4. Shorter-term MAs exhibiting positive behavior (crossing up).
While the stock may seem a little overbought on the shorter time frame, it is still time to increase our trade size by 20% while raising our stop-loss from $69.30 to $77.50. Next target at 86 remains valid.
I would not put new money at play into CVS before the earnings.
Comment
Even TRUMP comments to bring down the pharma sector do not seem to impact CVS. This stock continues to look healthy. HOLD positions.
Comment
TRUMP Fears eventually hit the sector yesterday. CVS down below support in above average volume. This long trade is still valid above 78-79 (last close 79.49). Stay long into earnings (Feb 9) above those levels.
Comment
CVS traded briefly and marginally below our current stop loss at 77.50 but rebounded promptly on the 78.00 support in respectable volume. Stay long ahead of earnings, particularly in the context where our trade is already in the money, and the proportion of shorts on the name has increased - Making any marginal positive news on the upcoming call a good reason for a short squeeze.
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.