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DAX:recession and 50% decline next 12-24 months
Ok guys, let's review DAX 3weeks/candle chart. this is more a of long-range forecast based on technicals and fundies. on technicals I don't see any upside from here, best case scenario is gap fill then the selling will resume.
Over next 12-24 months I expect yet another 50% decline from current levels (10 000 points). My target is 5 000 DAX.
DAX 3weekly chart long-range forecast is it possible that we drop another 50% from here???
absolutely. current global events already triggered recession, EZ was already in full-scale recession before corona, corona will accelerate things now.
Overall, we got a perfect storm now in global stocks, here's why:
-Coronavirus long-term impact on global businesses -Airline routes shut down and won't be restored any time soon -Entire countries on lockdown now - including Italy -USOIL crash after OPEC no-deal (I also called this in advance) -FED can't do much, cause there's not much room to cut rates -Interest rates remained too low for too long -So there's not enough space for FED to cut now
-Some other factors that can still produce shock/pain going forward -Collapse of DeutscheBank - they got a whopping book of 40 TRLN USD of derivatives exposure -So no doubt about that - you will hear more news about DB very soon -Ugly Elections in US 2020
All-in-all, pretty scary outlook going forward.
Now, let's review the chart DAX weekly:
We had 4 significant declines in the last 20 years:
1)Tech bubble decline 70% from HIGH/LOW 2)07-08 decline was 60% HIGH/LOW 3)recent declines 25%/30% HIGH/LOW 4)Current decline already surpassed 25% mark from HIGH/LOW
So what does that mean? Likely we get a 60/70% decline in 2020-2021 now. Target is 5 000 points for DAX based on the weekly chart and velocity of previous bear markets.
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