Fuel Seasonality
Updated
As someone who works in industry with large consumption of diesel fuel, we are very concerned and interested in fuel.
This past few weeks while gasoline is dropping, diesel fuel is in a price similar to the beginning of Ukraine war. So when will prices go back to "normal"?
As you can see in the included image, relative price between gasoline and diesel is very consistent in the way it moves every year. With a very similar and consistent variance. Diesel remained abnormally high between August of 2008 to January of 2009, bottoming in May 2009. This is apparent in the seasonality chart I made. Because of the extreme prices gasoline reached during the summer, the problem for diesel will continue for the entire winter. A single event (Ukraine war) caused a price chaos that lasts a year. Who knows what extremities will occur if, god forbid, a scaled war begins.
PS. I have made statistics regarding DJI, kWh, NG1!, RB1!/USOIL, and RB2!-RB1!
Maths and statistics are beautiful. This is not trading advice, this is art.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
This past few weeks while gasoline is dropping, diesel fuel is in a price similar to the beginning of Ukraine war. So when will prices go back to "normal"?
As you can see in the included image, relative price between gasoline and diesel is very consistent in the way it moves every year. With a very similar and consistent variance. Diesel remained abnormally high between August of 2008 to January of 2009, bottoming in May 2009. This is apparent in the seasonality chart I made. Because of the extreme prices gasoline reached during the summer, the problem for diesel will continue for the entire winter. A single event (Ukraine war) caused a price chaos that lasts a year. Who knows what extremities will occur if, god forbid, a scaled war begins.
PS. I have made statistics regarding DJI, kWh, NG1!, RB1!/USOIL, and RB2!-RB1!
Maths and statistics are beautiful. This is not trading advice, this is art.
Tread lightly, for this is hallowed ground. -Father Grigori
Note
Normalized price of Diesel Fuel:Note
How didn't I see this before?Note
Interesting USOIL chart...
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