Short

DAX, will this be the end of the bullish cycle wave?

Updated

Hallo everyone,
markets are crazy lately and beside the fact, that Germany is in a recession period the DAX were climbing up for several ATHs in the last weeks. I think this should find an end very soon, as we are testing the ultimate resistance area formed by trend lines from ATH prices in the past.
Also my wave count is pointing to an fifth wave of a fifth wave.

18000 will be a psychological barrier I don't expect the price to go over easily and we are facing the 1,618 extension level from the last wave at around 17700.

I will work with several positions starting from 17700 up to 18000.

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All indices are showing more bullish potential for tomorrow, maybe we will reach 18k before moving down, we will see.

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We have a first confirmation on the 1H chart. Also my indicator is showing for a possible reversal move very soon.

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Also the 4H candle is conforming the potential correctional move.
Please don't think this will be a big crash from this point, as the 1,618 fib level is a strong support for the moment. It will be interesting to see the daily and weekly candle close.

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Fridays candle close bearish, but it will not be an easy way down. So far the scenario is confirming very well, but there is still space above that could be used before we see a larger correction.

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Second bearish daily candle close. It looks good from a technical perspective.

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Another bearish candle close, but it seems the movement will not start until we get a weekly confirmation.

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I'll observe how the market reacts to the broken black trendline. If it falls below a top could already have formed. If the price holds above there is a chance of one more high.

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There is a strong bullish volume today that could indicate another long wave from this point. Tomorrow is NFP data announcement which could show us the short term direction.

Trade active

As expected we got another move close to 18000. As the price should be very close to a big sell off I start with the first position now.

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Very nice development here. We first bearish signs on the daily and I would like to see a confirmation on the weekly now. Also the RSI is showing a divergence signal, a good sign for a correction.

Also the price is rejected from 18k, which is a psychological resistance.

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So far the price is not giving us more indication, that the trend has reached it's top.
We have to wait for the next week.

Trade active

The DAX was more bullish than the other indices in the last week and was able to close above the drawn trend line. Both indicators I use are showing overbought conditions, but the trend reversal signal is still missing. I usually use trend reversal candle stick patterns for confirmation. A bearish engulfing at this point would be great.

Trade active

Yesterday confirmed the idea of a possible trend reversal here. We have to see how the weekly candle closes, but selling at this point is not the worst idea.

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We have seen a shallow correction, but it seems it could be over again. Very difficult to trade pullbacks currently in the market. It's pointing to another bullish move now.

Kyrean

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