Key arguments supporting the idea
Dell Technologies develops, manufactures, and sells a wide range of integrated solutions, products, and services. The company operates through two segments: Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) and Client Solutions Group (CSG). The ISG segment provides solutions for customers’ digital transformation, including artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, data analytics, as well as modern and traditional data storage. The CSG segment offers branded personal computers, including laptops, desktops, workstations, and peripherals such as monitors, keyboards, and webcams.
Investment Thesis
Positive Technical Outlook and Low Multiples. After releasing financial results for Q3 FY2025, Dell’s stock entered a correction phase, reaching three-month lows. However, the stock subsequently resumed an upward trajectory. Currently, the RSI technical indicator remains below the overbought zone, signaling further upside potential. Dell’s market multiples appear highly attractive. The forward P/E ratio of 14 is slightly above the company’s historical levels but remains significantly lower than the sector average (24) and the S&P 500 index (23). The forward P/S ratio of 0.8 is considerably below the sector average (3.28), reinforcing the view that Dell is currently undervalued.
2025 Expected to Mark the Start of a New PC Upgrade Cycle. Following the COVID-19-driven surge in PC sales, many of these devices are reaching the end of their typical 3-4 year lifecycle. Despite initial analyst expectations for significant market growth, real growth in 2024 was just 1% YoY. According to updated IDC forecasts, 2025 is expected to be the year of PC market recovery. Key growth drivers include: massive device aging from previous years’ purchases, end of support for Windows 10 in October 2025 and increased demand for AI-integrated computers IDC projects 4.3% PC market growth in 2025, which should positively impact Dell’s largest segment – CSG.
AI Infrastructure to be the Strongest Growth Driver for ISG. Dell maintains a leading position in data center supply, alongside HP and SMCI, making it a key player in AI training infrastructure. For the first nine months of FY2025, Dell’s revenue from servers and networking equipment (part of ISG) grew 60% YoY. According to Bloomberg’s consensus, ISG revenue is expected to grow by 30% YoY in FY2025 and by another 15% in FY2026. This growth is driven by rising demand for AI servers, fueled by NVIDIA GB200 chip shipments and U.S. government AI support programs. An additional growth factor could be the shift of market share from SMCI to Dell due to suspicions of SMCI violating U.S. sanctions, which erodes customer trust and encourages migration to a more stable partner.
We maintain a Buy rating on DELL stock with a price target of $135. A stop-loss order is recommended at $90.
- Attractive Multiples and Technical Outlook
- Growth Across All Business Segments
- Dell Rapidly Expanding Market Share in AI Server Segment
Dell Technologies develops, manufactures, and sells a wide range of integrated solutions, products, and services. The company operates through two segments: Infrastructure Solutions Group (ISG) and Client Solutions Group (CSG). The ISG segment provides solutions for customers’ digital transformation, including artificial intelligence (AI), machine learning, data analytics, as well as modern and traditional data storage. The CSG segment offers branded personal computers, including laptops, desktops, workstations, and peripherals such as monitors, keyboards, and webcams.
Investment Thesis
Positive Technical Outlook and Low Multiples. After releasing financial results for Q3 FY2025, Dell’s stock entered a correction phase, reaching three-month lows. However, the stock subsequently resumed an upward trajectory. Currently, the RSI technical indicator remains below the overbought zone, signaling further upside potential. Dell’s market multiples appear highly attractive. The forward P/E ratio of 14 is slightly above the company’s historical levels but remains significantly lower than the sector average (24) and the S&P 500 index (23). The forward P/S ratio of 0.8 is considerably below the sector average (3.28), reinforcing the view that Dell is currently undervalued.
2025 Expected to Mark the Start of a New PC Upgrade Cycle. Following the COVID-19-driven surge in PC sales, many of these devices are reaching the end of their typical 3-4 year lifecycle. Despite initial analyst expectations for significant market growth, real growth in 2024 was just 1% YoY. According to updated IDC forecasts, 2025 is expected to be the year of PC market recovery. Key growth drivers include: massive device aging from previous years’ purchases, end of support for Windows 10 in October 2025 and increased demand for AI-integrated computers IDC projects 4.3% PC market growth in 2025, which should positively impact Dell’s largest segment – CSG.
AI Infrastructure to be the Strongest Growth Driver for ISG. Dell maintains a leading position in data center supply, alongside HP and SMCI, making it a key player in AI training infrastructure. For the first nine months of FY2025, Dell’s revenue from servers and networking equipment (part of ISG) grew 60% YoY. According to Bloomberg’s consensus, ISG revenue is expected to grow by 30% YoY in FY2025 and by another 15% in FY2026. This growth is driven by rising demand for AI servers, fueled by NVIDIA GB200 chip shipments and U.S. government AI support programs. An additional growth factor could be the shift of market share from SMCI to Dell due to suspicions of SMCI violating U.S. sanctions, which erodes customer trust and encourages migration to a more stable partner.
We maintain a Buy rating on DELL stock with a price target of $135. A stop-loss order is recommended at $90.
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Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.